I can not respond to your post...The answer is its much more an art than a science..There is no real way of getting it right all the time..it is better to view it as a period of distribution or accumulation, then it helps to see which way the preasure is building. It also very often will fake out before moving so it will test the extremes to the up before breaking down or visa versa.. So today the guys who profitted from the gap up this morning are using this time to exit. the guys who were caught long are using this time to exit at less of a loss or even in profit... So who is buying? Is it smart money or really stupid money..for the answer to this go read a few post on the forum.