Howdy dudes Me two cents on Dubai. I'm working in Abu Dhabi, on the business desk of a newspaper here, and just now, and we are in virtual news lockdown: I was told earlier to pull Reuters stories on the carfufle, and nothing, but nothing, goes live on our website without getting cleared. Our own reporters are in near mutiny because of the way the copy gets remangled into something that gives the impression Dubai World is doing nothing more than changing the colour of its carpets. This is because our publication is owned by the Abu Dhabi royals. Our editors say they are being told news published here could be viewed in Dubai as an attempt to put pressure on them to accept a conditional financial settlement that favours Abu Dhabi. Basically, the word is Dubai was a little coy about just how deep a hole they had dug themselves. Abu Dhabi helped out by floating a $20bn bond earlier this year, but then Dubai needed more. So now they are talking turkey. Abu Dhabi has begun attaching conditions to any further financial assistance, like, erm, sell us your stuff, and we give you some money. So Dubai, last week, effectively held its breath and threatened to turn blue unless Abu Dhabi coughs up. That said, Abu Dhabi has more than enough cash to float their their neighbours. The issue is not really whether they will help - its a question of how much Dubai is willing to give Abu Dhabi in return. The noise about the debt standstill is, therefore, part of the haggling. I don't see how this will spill over into emerging markets. India is the most vulnerable, giving the number of people it has here working. But Dubai's property disaster is old news. So is the list of unpaid construction companies, which have been standing in line for the best part of a year. So I would go with the dudes who said technical, rather than fundamental news, is going to determine the outcome.
