Visit our COVID-19 site for latest information regarding how we can support you. For up to date information about the pandemic visit www.sacoronavirus.co.za.

bs-regular
bs-extra-light
bs-light
bs-light
bs-cond-light-webfont
bs-medium
bs-bold
bs-black

Community


Share knowledge. Ask questions. Find answers.

Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

US Data out today

Reply
Runbird
Contributor
The following reports are being released today: Mar 29 Gross Domestic Product (Q4f , 2006) Mar 29 Corporate Profits Mar 29 Jobless Claims (wk3/24 , 2007) Mar 29 Corporate Profits (Q4r , 2007) Mar 29 Help Wanted Index (Feb , 2007) Mar 29 EIA Natual Gas Report (wk3/24 , 2007) Mar 29 Farm Prices (Mar , 2007) Mar 29 Money Supply (wk3/19 , 2007) Think it will have an effect?
0 Kudos
42 REPLIES 42
peekay
Frequent Contributor
Yes it will have an effect: Either positive, negative or neutral.
0 Kudos
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
ya that's the problem with data. One never knows how the market will rspond never mind the fact that we also don't know what the actually numbers will be.
0 Kudos
Runbird
Contributor
What I meant is, is it important enough to have a major move either way if it's good or bad, or would these figures be priced in already. Most of the data from the US is negative these days, and with this many reports on one day, it probably means it will send markets lower, if not already priced in.
0 Kudos
DCTrader
Super Contributor
Well look at the last 3 days Runbird... DOW openly sharply lower and had no effect on our market! But watch now today when the DOW opens higher, then our markets will fly again... fickel fickel.
0 Kudos
Runbird
Contributor
Difference is, commodity futures are lower today, Gold is down slightly, but Oil is still ticking up. So, if the DOW opens down, I think we will follow with no strong commodity prices to keep us up...
0 Kudos
DCTrader
Super Contributor
Well if that's the case... then why we up at the moment given that the DOW has tanked the last 3 days...
0 Kudos
peekay
Frequent Contributor
Well based on the US futures I went short early yesterday afternoon. Big mistake. I am losing big time
0 Kudos
Runbird
Contributor
We are not convincingly up - volumes are low. I get the feeling the market is waiting to see what the DOW will do. I think we just followed the Asian markets up, but there's a lot of uncertainty.
0 Kudos
kr_pto
Super Contributor
my personal view would be that the recent sharp downward moves were contagion based, in that all the world markets started to track each other to some extent (or maybe more correctly track the US market), out of fear of global downturn. this continues while there is huge global volatility. but at some point, individual markets take on their own direction again. maybe local investors (or even overseas funds too) are starting to take more of specific view of our market again. this then includes our bias to resources, which helps our market (whereas during the period of "contagion" everything was pretty much tanked). but hey, just my opinion.
0 Kudos
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
we weren't convincingly down either ...
0 Kudos
john_1
Super Contributor
There is also this view.... that the more 'Risk" in the US markets the more money flows out and into higher yielding emerging markets with "sound" fundamentals based on thier own business cycle. If you are a yank sitting on a billion dollars do you pit into ford or Anglo American. I know were my money is.
0 Kudos
Runbird
Contributor
True, Simon, which probably just adds to the argument that our market is more likely to go down, than up. If sentiment was positive, we would be seeing a lot more volumes. Everybody seems to be waiting for the Iran situation, US Data etc. Are we going up or down? I don't know, but I'm leaning towards shorting...
0 Kudos
Runbird
Contributor
peekay, if you read Simon's post from yesterday - US futures are not something to go by since it is only a few small speculators on the market and the picture tends to change rapidly as we approach the Wall street open...
0 Kudos
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
runbird, I disagree with that statement 100%. Sentiment has been positive for the last 4 years, what's changed that? Nothing - so trend remains up. You could argue that sentiment is currently changing - maybe, but that doesn't mean it is now down. Go check out the charts from April last year and what happened there after.
0 Kudos
DCTrader
Super Contributor
I think you guys are confusing long term with short term projections... naturally the trend is up over the longer term. I think runbird is referring to the next day or two. Simon, email addy?
0 Kudos
Runbird
Contributor
Yes, I am referring to the next day or so. Long term trend is still up, as is sentiment. However, even long term, the cracks are starting to show. Would I go short on a weekly or monthly trade? No way! But, for the next two days...
0 Kudos
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
dc, maybe. But I wouldn't even be bearish for short term. For now I think the easy money is sitting on the side lines waiting for the move to start and the probability is that the move will be up as the primary trend resumes..

[email protected]
0 Kudos
DCTrader
Super Contributor
0 Kudos
Runbird
Contributor
Ah, but the points difference between the trendlines at any given point is about 500. Lots of room for ups and downs within the primary upward trend and lots of room for surfing some waves...
0 Kudos