WHAT IS BEING PRICED-IN?

[THRESHOLD]

It looks as if the market is beginning to price-in a situation where the deal falls through. It will be interesting to watch how this develops.

[SimonPB]

STUART THEOBALD: Chinese bid for Metorex looking shaky
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=154928

[topgun]

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=154926

[THRESHOLD]

THERE WE GO... And when, some time ago, I suggested that this could happen - and recommended selling and taking profit - the notion was dismissed the notion out of hand.

[SimonPB]

from somebody on my twitter feed ..
But 1) 2-years for Jinchuan to complete Wesizwe deal; 2) This is about securing copper for national security

[#6]

Well, I sold and took profit after the first deal was announced - 730 per share. I gave up a lot, but as a rule, I don't stick around when offers are on the table. The upsides are capped, but the downsides are not. So I am always prepared to forfeit the last bit of gains, to protect my profits.

[J12]

Good point skaaltjop. Small upside potential vs. big downside. Nevertheless, i have already lost a lot of money on this trade and i'm still holding on. I spoke to investor relations last Friday and they said that everything is still on track as per the SENS announcement. There should be an announcement soon from Metorex giving an update on the progress so far. I just can't believe that one article can cause the share to tank so badly. Over 5% down just today. I'll probably think twice before just leaping into a buyout again, but i'm holding on to this one because the alternative is just too painful for my portfolio to think of.

[J12]

Today's SENS on MTX: Terence Goodlace, Chief Executive Officer said: "It is pleasing to report record quarterly copper production at Metorex and at Ruashi in particular where, despite power restraints, the mine produced 9 438 tons of copper and 913 tons of cobalt. The closing of the Jinchuan transaction is proceeding on plan and in line with the timetable as set out in the Circular sent to shareholders on 2 August 2011." Maybe the Jinchuan deal is more about securing copper reserves for China. In any case, Stuart Thoebald's article was quite sensational. He listed 2 failed Chinese deals and scared the hell out of this share. Seems like everything is on track so far though.

[SimonPB]

and the later SENS .. there is still a lot of hoops to jump through ..

[J12]

2 more big hoops: 1) the Zambian authorities, and 2) the PRC authorities approvals. Though at this point, the Zambian authorities approval is probably more suspect than the PRC approval.

[doomsdayza]

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=154752

something else being priced in? ~potential increase in taxes

[J12]

Yea. New president Michael Sata seems to be the one behind FirstRand's recently failed purchase of a Zambian bank. Worrying news for investors like myself who are hoping for this MTX deal to go through. Though, I've read that Michael Sata has said that he would protect Chinese interests in Zambia if he is elected... so maybe it's not all that bad.

[klapka]

New President Michael Sata used to work as a cleaner at Victoria station, London. A new broom sweeps clean?