This is really getting frustratin really! but it is expected that there should be a slight bounce before the ultimate slaughter takes place! By reading johns post the other day, i realised that im on the wrong side of the market 'This is a bear market,wait for the bounce then short, dont trade the bounce, that is a bull market strategy' Now im jus waiting for that bounce so i can exit!!!
I've never held a PUT warrant this long ,now entering third week,of course with stop losses....funnily i was also hoping that AMS would rally more than the measly one up today,anyway always hope for tomorrow,as i wanted to buy more PUTS.
Typical bulls (value investors) seem to have turned their backs on this one - Piet Viljoen (talking head from Regarding Capital), for example, won't buy it over a R100. And this is because of the dividend issue and that the perception now that resources won't turn around in 2009. The bigger reality here is that its one of the pillars of the TOPI, and if its going to show major weakness, its going to to drag the TOPI down through important resistance lines. So things don't look up for it and the index in future if there's no bounce.
AMS might bounce but the analyst earnings estimates don't look like they'll support it much. Also look at how the estimates have dropped. Anglo, I'm guessing everyone was so horrified by the drop that they're scared to put in, in case there's more. Still, both have a rally monkey driving and it'll wake up at some point :)
On long term trendline. If we dont see a bounce within next few day and it breaks fom here its going to be real nasty. IMO. I think the thing to do is to wait for a confirmation before doing anything from here. Action to either side may be violent. John advise IMO very sound.
you can believe what Piet Viljoen says. I've met him and he is a straight up bloke. He's not known for making the biggest returns but he never loses money. He's one of the smartest operators out there.