Technically this one is looking really good....one of the safest plays at the moment....sector rotation, seasonal play, ZAR strength and a period of severe underperformance (in the short/medium term) are going to make this (have already) a "buy now and see steady profits every day till Xmas kinda play"...
agreed, forward rolling PE below 12x and a projected div. yield of 4.9% at 1800 cps. strong defensive qualities in the food operation with an ongoing store rollout programme. A stay in interest rates at the forthcoming MPC meeting later this month will be a real kicker!!
Somthing I have never got my head round in terms of volume... is if is so obvious this share is going to rise. why would 30million shares be given away without the price rising by more than a few cents. that a lot of people who think this is going fall further. What is it I am missing .
My guess ... the 30 million who bought any time since last December, who have watched their profits come and go or watched their losses grow, who right now are looking at the graphs thinking: This thing is tanking while the rest of ALSI is up???
Brazen's answer is actually more useful that you can imagine....the ability to understand the reasons people are doing the opposite to what you are doing is really important...esp when they are pushing through the volumes they are....often when we see big order we think ...what do they know that I dont.....well for one they know nothing you dont...secondly they are often buying and selling not cause they want to but because they have to....portfolio mandates, stop losses....remember a lot of guys managing other peoples money have taken a hit on WHL...they may want to get out cause they have been told to exit as soon as there is a bounce...there could be a whole host of reasons....all you need to remember when you are trading against guys who biggest fear is that they are going to lose their jobs its makes your life easier....
it could well be just one or two institutional sellers feeding the market at +- 1800 cps - the investment committee has decided to lower exposure to WHL (for whatever reason)and the dealers are now executing - the bounce should occur once the overhang has been cleared provided a surplus appetite still remains in the market.
I agree with chartist. There would hav been a convincing case from the 25th. There was teriffic volume support initially but today was not at all convincing with the price movement. Jus seems like tons of shares changing hands with no obvious shift in the sentiment. Probably a buying opportunity at some time but not now i would think.