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What are the things that push the MTN share price up and down?

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Not applicable
I've been keeping my eyes on the price of MTN shares for long enough and I still find it a bit hard to judge the timings and what exactly pushed the price up and down. For example, Christmas and New Year period - people will normally call alot more during the festive season, but the price of share rose up dramatically on the 5th and the 6th of January (increased by 12%). Did the share price go up when people paid their bills at the end of the month? or when they made a lot of calls on the day/during the period - is the system real-time or are there some delays in admin? Tomorrow is valentine's day, will it push the price of share up? Are there any good indicators that will almost guarantee the up or down of the price? MTN has has a huge investment in Africa, especially Nigeria, which obviously relies heavily on Dollars... if the Dollar weakens, does it means more profitable for MTN?
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17 REPLIES 17
Valued Contributor
markets look forward at least 6-12 months. So tomorrow is way priced in already ..
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Not applicable
MONEYPENNY, the only thing that affects the share price is buying and selling. People can make phonecalls till they're blue in the face, but if nobody buys or sells the share, it will not move. Realise that the JSE is a secondary market - people are buying and selling from each other. The company earnings are entirely divorced from that. Sure, people may buy the share if they expect dividends from good earnings, or the company itself can affect the share price if it buys back shares, but the ONLY thing that moves any share price is supply and demand - buying and selling. So, phonecalls on Valentines Day or during December have nothing to do with it.
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Super Contributor
Ya right... how many blokes bought their ladies their valintine card 6 months ago?...LOL..what drive the price is buying and selling of the share for profit...not how many times you call your broker.
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chivas
Contributor
Contrary to belief, most people's cellphone bills go down in December/January. Most corporates are closed. Most businesses, except for retail, wind down. You don't make as many calls, and if you do, they are not for as long a duration as normal trends. The only thing that goes up is the number of SMS and MMS.
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Not applicable
Thanks for the replies in cheerful tone! The secondary market made sense to me now. It made me wonder what have actually pushed the share price up by 12% in just two days on the 5th and the 6th January before the price went back into hibernation? The current price is almost flat-lined - between 9400 and 9900. What kind of things in 6-12 months speculation period should I look for? A new seabed cable in conjunction with Neotel and possibly Vodacom. Soccer World Cup to fall into 12 months speculation period, not sure if it will have impact on the price. Impending MTN financial results. Arrival of a brand new cellphone technology. I know some aspects of technical analysts and techniques, but I would also like to know what real-life indicators that will guarantee the up and down of the share price. Some people said the upcoming financial results could have positive impact on the share price. If the results are positive and the profits are better than expected, the share price will also be pushed up... I also saw some people bought shares just in time before the specific dates when the dividends are declared. Then sell the shares at acceptable price for dividends of another share thereafter. Is that true? CHIVAS: Hmm... you are right! Couldn't the MTN sales in December and January be up too?
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Not applicable
Your analysis fails to include how events & factors are interpretted by the humans who buy or sell shares. Tis not the events but whether they are interpretted positively or negatively. Is anglo worth 10% more on a day because the share price went up 10%? Have events happened to cause the increase? Nope. Sentiment has changed.
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Not applicable
Re. the dividend strategy, normally the value of the share opens lower by the value of the dividend after the LDT, so there are no quick profits to be made there. There is often more movement in the share in the weeks prior to the LDT; holding during this time can sometimes be profitable. At the moment, however,dividends and profits mean precious little. Most of the price movements of any share are related to the unfolding global recession and sentiment surrounding that. Volatility has been very high in the last few months. Daily moves of 10% up or down in individual shares have been relatively commonplace.
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Highlighted
Super Contributor
People who see funny shapes in the curve push it up and down.
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Not applicable
Never know that the traders could be artful ones who draw the curves! :) Thanks, I guess people take the current news on company, the current state of global finance, director or board member's scandal, inflation and affordability into account to determine the price they could buy or sell for. I see the current MTN price is about 9200c and I wonder if the price will go up to about 11500c before it's financial results are available to public. As for dividends, say I own 200 shares worth 10000c each on the LDT day for example. If the dividend is declared 100c per share. Will the price of share be 9900c the day after the dividends are paid. Am I right?
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Not applicable
Yes, barring any additional movement due to news, changing sentiment, etc.
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Not applicable
... that is, yes to the dividend question. As to the price increase, good luck; I do not have a strong opinion on MTN's direction.
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Not applicable
Hey, the trading volume for MTN has been growing since last week and it has hit 10,000,000 mark. Probably because of hitting stop-loss margins or traders going for cash route, but it also gave traders opporturnity to buy shares that low. I hope the trading volume will continue to grow until it starts to climb up, even briefly. Saw ANG was hit very hard by the news, ouch!
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Not applicable
It appears that another factor in the decline of the market is (formerly) long-term and unit trust investors pulling their money out. This could result in a long period of decline. Be careful!
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Frequent Contributor
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Not applicable
The MTN SENS dated 20 February just before 18:00, posted an increase in HEPS of between 38% and 43% and Adjusted HEPS of between 29% and 34%. A positive sign?
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Super Contributor
Afraid not, Ms. MoneyPenny. Well below forecast and expectations.
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Frequent Contributor
Hi, Do bear in mind that NuShelf paid out recently an ex employees are busy selling their shares. Thus a % increase in the trade volumes can be attributed to this Current MTN Employees are in a close period they will start selling from the 12th of March onwards so we should see sokme nice buying opportunity. What can one expect the upside on the share to be when the financials are announced on the 12th march
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