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Online Share Trading

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What growth are you achieving hmmmm??

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Occasional Contributor
Please humor me - how much (%) are you achieving on your portfolio on a reasonably regular basis? If I use the brain my mother-in-law says I don't have, what can I expect on a 'balanced' portfolio (if there is such a thing)? Level with me - some crooks who sell these packages and start their sales spiel with 'you have won a prize' swear on the Bible that it will guarantee (not in writing of course!) 40% per year minimum. Are they snake oil merchants or just misunderstood good guys? Is that figure achievable? HELP,Oh great and wise Guru's!!
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22 REPLIES 22
Super Contributor
With a name like IDIOT, whats the point of posting a reply to your question, it would be IDIOTIC,
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Regular Contributor
if they got 40% they would not be working they be living the good life so their sums dont ad up
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Occasional Contributor
Thanks for the compliment - I assume you're making 50% ???
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Super Contributor
measure yourself against the STX40
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Contributor
I'm with grommet on this one - any system that can guarantee you "40%" is worth more than as the actual trading system than it is as a system that you sell to other people to make 40%. Whenever I get e-mails from these okes I always send a reply asking why they don't just trade their system and I never get a response, so I don't go to their presentations. Here's what I reckon is achieveable over typical 5 year period: 1) Passive long only investment eg STX40 buy and hold: Inflation + 4ish% 2) Well managed long only portfolio: Inflation + 5% 3) Trading long only, no gearing : Inflation + 10% 3)Trading long only, geared - depends how good you are but Inflation + How good you are seems realistic 4) Trading no short constraint - depends how good you are but could be Inflation + how good you are multiplied by how much gearing you're prepared to accept. 4) Market neutral portfolio, hedge fund type approach - Inflation + 15% is probably achievable, again depending how good you are. Where am I at the moment - trying to work out how good I am.
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Super Contributor
a) 40%? RUN RUN RUN ( AWAY) b) Returns are a function of many factors - get the facts ( but not from these people) c) beware of fear and greed.
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Not applicable
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Not applicable
Pie-In-The-Sky-Stuff! I'm not so sure. Let's put it this way. If you trade with R10 000, YOU can make 100% profit in one year. That is definately possible. All you need is time. They did not say over what time frame. If that is what they are selling, then they are not lying. Innvesting in shares is a different ball game. Growth is slow unless you hit a jumper, but to hit a jumper your risk might have gone through the ceiling.
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Super Contributor
It has been realistic to double your money every 5 years that is roughly a 14% return a year.Not sure that will be achievable in the next 5/10 years.
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Occasional Contributor
Thank you so much for not insulting me, Spoegs! I think what you say makes eminent sense. I actually achieved 19% on a small portfolio, but then I stumbled on to a bit of 'inside info' and had some lucky breaks. I ascribe that to beginner's luck (if there is such a thing!), which is why I was interested to know what more experienced people thought was a realistic target, so thank you for a great response. By the way, I did not buy the package - I've been around for a while and have learnt that if something sounds too good to be true - pasop!
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Super Contributor
Well there are not a lot of guys who can achieve 40% because before you do it. You have to believe its possible...so clearly nobody in the thread would achieve it even if the "sysytem on offer" is cabale of such a return...take Simons system for eg...how many of you can say you trade it exactly as he does every time there is a signal, or my system which I posted some time back....the real truth is why pay for something you will never actually use, and instead of attacking the "sysytem" perhaps you need to look at yourselves in the mirror and challenge what it is you believe about money, markets, trading and returns..
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Occasional Contributor
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Super Contributor
I see the initial question was "What growth can I expect on a balanced portfolio?" - so who over here got 40+% per year for 5 and/or 10 years in a row on a balanced portfolio?
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Super Contributor
The answer to that is simple ...NOBODY, not only here but anywere, remember, "Balanced Portfolio", not trading.
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Super Contributor
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Super Contributor
Well funny you should mention that because SATRIX (I think we all agree it is at least an attempt at a balenced porfolio) did in fact have an average return above 40% for 5 years... MArch 31 2002-2003 returned =44.4% 2003-2004 = 41.4% 2004-2005 = 25.5% 2005-2006 = 54.1% 2006-2007 = 36.9% and in 2007-2008 = 13.88% now that as an average is a return of 43.2% and that is a buy and hold return.I think I will rest my case!! (numbers from Satrix website)
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Super Contributor
How can you trade a balance portfolio I trade 5 shares cfd's. In 12 months for the Old man I trade for ,for fun we have 200 000 rand and we made R 78 000 .Its high risk and its definitely not balanced its swing trading short and long .Its pure technical trading .
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Super Contributor
if you're speaking of STX40 - you conveniently chose the end of a very strong bull market to make your point. another point, i think you average calculation might not be 100%. but if you calculate from today going back 5 years you get a total gain of 79% or so, that is far worse, not consistent gain, I guess if one wants to have a balanced portfolio one shouldn't only look at the best bull market times but also when corrections/crashes comes along. One must also be careful that one might not get the results found from 2002-2008 in the next 5 years. that would be speculating with the current global issues around. OK, one can get 40% average maybe, but definately not consistently over a long period of time without taking on (possibly) unacceptably high risks for ones life savings. fair enough a small trading portfolio can be good, but i dont know who would put their entire future on the line for a few speculative gains (which could turn south very fast).... in the end this is just my view...
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Super Contributor
See my point exactly, unless you believe it you wont achieve it..even when its in front of you, you still have some ***** about how it cant be done..well if you were short in 2008-2009- as I was you would have made even more than 40% and if you were long in 2009-2010 you would have made another 40% so thats more than 7 years of 40% growth... come on man.I traded and made more than that for every one of those years from 2005. I turnes 30k into 650k from 2006- 2009 through the great dump of 2008.. Those numbers were written down when I started research with you about possible momentum stratergies, they were not chosen because they were good years. As a trader long or short you make money so I would not have considered those dates as biased as 2008 was the best year I have ever had trading..and it was all short.
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