When is a loss a loss?

[louisg]

When do you guys/gals consider a "paper loss" a loss? Is it only a loss after you have sold or do you consider it a real loss while you're holding a losing position? Isn't a loss a loss?

[Blik]

Following on from what Chartist said he other day - a loss is a loss, paper or otherwise. If you could have sold up, why have a paper loss down.

[Picky]

well, if you're not trading with rent money consider this: It's like placing a bet in the first race and your horse finishes out of the placing, however you have your horse competing in the second and third.. EVERY DAY, Obviously odds drop but hey you in are still in the race, every single time. So if you have time?, hold onto that ticket . Else cash up and pay the rent and top up the difference

[john_1]

LG when do you consider a loss to be a loss..I am unsure as to how you value your losses? Do you use the current market price or do you only call it a loss when you sell?

[#5]

John I find it hard to believe you even contemplate questions like this...

[john_1]

Ah! My fighting friend I have missed you..alsmost..I am not contemplating it..I simply wanted to know how MR stuborn over here views his current loss making trades.

[john_1]

What do think of this rally...I was surprised by the lack of conviction by the bears.. not even an attempt at a new low...very disapointing.

[Werner_1]

Why is he stuborn if he has a different strategy to yours? maybe he has totally different goals, etc. and is just following his plan? I think there are many stuborn people on this site, that is this the definition of "stuborn"...

[#9]

John....I can see your perspective is totally different to mine.....the bears do not have to do anything at the moment...they need no conviction.....they are quite pleased with these rallies...at the moment they have the upper hand....unlike bulls who require conviction and a herd mentality the bears do not try and force things ...they let the foolish bulls do all the work....instead of trying to sell into a sell off they sell at the top of a rally...the selling is done by the idiots that c r a p themselves when stops are hit...I am not saying that we will not see quite a good rally but the balance of power will not have changed...

[john_1]

That Part I totally agree with..I did expect to see a new low. In my mind would have left no doubt as to who is in controll.Prehaps you are right its that doubt that is good for the bears so that the bulls stay tightly hearded...one thing I will say I have never seen a market respond to Fibs like we are at the moment..it really is quite increadable.

[#11]

yes incredible...u need to take note of volumes though....

[john_1]

explain..I newly converted!

[#13]

volumes and the VIX...with the Vix at such elevated levels you were always going to get a huge bounce...although the VIX is called a measure of fear it is actually a leading indicator....what it technically means is that there is a very high ratio of shorts to longs....so a short covering rally is more likely the higher the VIX....so the more active the bears the greater the likelyhood that they fail...does that make my previous statement appear to have a greater verisimilitude?

[john_1]

wait while I get out my dictionary

[#15]

just to put the Vix into perspective...we used to think a reading of 27 was high....34 very high...now we are trading at 70!....unprecedented fear

[SimonPB]

SAVI as well. 26 was higher, then 32 was high. Now 57 is the record high. An if I recall post 9/11 VIX didn't even hit 40.

[#17]

Sorry to barge in like this... Does this mean that when the VIX climbs to somewhere near where it was before the previous short cover rally, that the next bounce is imminent?

[john_1]

vix now double its previous highs going back to the 1990's

[john_1]

The money is always on the other side of the emotion...a High VIX= High fear..So to get at the money the market must rally! Same way high greed market must fall to wipe the smile off those who got greedy..

[#20]

I had been calling the tops fairly well, probably because greed is fairly easy to spot - articles and interviews all over saying "now is the time to buy" (interspersed with articles about bad fundamentals) give me a clear signal to short. However, I've been missing the bottoms because I have not known how to measure fear. VIX to the rescue!