When to get in...

[Rovert]

ABL punished further, touching R8. When do you think is the right time to start nibbling?

[SimonPB]

never

[Preston]

Eish, ngeke

[Preston]

Eish, ngeke

[Russ]

Looking at that chart have to agree with Simon.

[Wizard]

The big banks issue personal loans as well, but I wonder how they get it right??

[SimonPB]

abl messed it up on a number of levels .. others were cutting back on size and duration while abl continued to extend both .. they also under provisioned .. your stats tell you what level of default to expect, cpi puts aside more than the stats suggest, reducing profit but meaning they don't do a abl .. abl always under provisioned, meant larger profits but then they got to where they are now

[Wizard]

I see....thanks

[Preston]

@simon , Reckless lending

[Preston]

@simon , Reckless lending

[Preston]

@simon , Reckless lending

[SimonPB]

yip, good old fashioned reckless lending ..

[partridge]

Well. its clear that the share's bottom is impossible to tell.( As always in these things.) At the moment no upside is going to "suddenly" materialize. The potential for further downside is still there. The fact that this latest decline is a surprise to investors will mean that no -one has confidence in the existing management. It remains to wait - and wait - and that might involve sitting out another rights issue - and hopefully new management - before its worth considering.

[kwagga]

You're welcome to catch this falling knife. If losses continue at the current trend, then African Bank will be no more if a short few years.

[Wizard]

Soon the NAV is going to be around 6. That will be the upper limit of a future trend. Depends on how long this one stays in the red we can see R2-R3 trading environment by year end

[WES]

David Shapiro named this a hospital share ...lol. It is spot on.

[#17]

If I remember correctly, these guys are funded by wholesale deposits over and above their share capital which funds are then lent out. I wonder if or when these "funders" will start pulling their funds out?

[SimonPB]

not whole sale deposit, but bonds/etc. issued which will roll but at higher rates (as we saw happening last year)

[#19]

Simon, what would be the remaining lifespan of these bonds and if the bank blows, the holders will no doubt be concurrent creditors?

[SimonPB]

various maturities, if it blows that after sars in line