Who holding what ?

[#1]

I recon its going to be difficult to make money on the index at these levels. I mean Satrix is down 8% from its highs. Resource stocks make up a hefty portion and look fully priced at the moment, especially considering the cost pressures and new order mineral rights, and for those like BHP, new taxation laws. Plat stocks sitting at 50times earnings for IMP, and 200 times for AMS. The gold miners are dice roll at the best of times, and the big industrials like SAB are trading in excess of 20 times earnings multiples. I think at these levels, the index will not give great returns. A stock pick strategy must surely be a better one. Of course, if we were to correct further, then by all means.

[richardw]

To be honest, that's what I'm doing too - looking very carefully through what is on offer. I wouldn't buy the index just because it's so expensive. But that's after a year of the index killing most money managers, filled to the brim with 'alpha'!

[Werner_1]

John, is it true that you trend following strategy is actually short term and not for a long term investor who doesnt want to churn their portfolio - if one must consistently update positions to be only winners its going to generate some income taxes frequently and brokerage costs, for an investor that wants to buy and hold for many years to come this strategy isnt the best?

[john_1]

Werner there is away around every obsticle.. 1 you have to know were you are.2. you have to know were you are going. 3. you have to know what stands in your way..4 then you move arround over or under it.. tis really simple..

[Werner_1]

that doesnt answer the question - its very simple i know - but buying the winners will change all the time, long term (10 years) holding will not work that way... what happens if you buy the winner and 6 months later a crash comes, those winners could fall faster than others leaving you with a huge loss - my portfolio has shown me that the winners i bought before the crash did worse than the other shares that were not winners when i bought them that are now very good winners - CPI, APN.

[kwagga]

I won't add to any portfolio right now. Simply too much downward momentum in an expensive market. One or two that might offer fair value at most is BTI and MTN. Commodities have been under pressure for quite some time, so why your looking at a junior miner just boggles my mind right now.

[Werner_1]

I also am not adding right now. accumulating cash and watching for opportunities.

[#8]

Werner, John's strategy would be to exit in a crash - yours is to hold. He has factored in his downside risk by adjusting his portfolio, you have factored it by ensuring your companies are sustainable over the long term. John spreads his risk by cycling in and out of winning stocks, you factor your risk through careful evaluation, and fundamental analysis. Both strategies are proven to work, so debating one over the other is a bit of a chalk and cheese comparison, IMO

[Werner_1]

I agree with you, but for a long term investor one needs to hold for long term otherwise you a trader...