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Why is everybody so bullish!!

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Running_bull
Frequent Contributor
Imagine the Chinese with all their reserves are licking their lips on current resource prices. guess they can stock up now. The recession will end before China run out of buying capacity.
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_nova
Super Contributor
eish, 5% would be nasty! But if this package adds 3% to 4% and they can maintain around 9% then it will definitely help. We should definitely see some benefit from that (we hope)
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_nova
Super Contributor
You know, you got to applaud the dragon, they're positioning themselves strategically to come out of this almost unscathed. They have the fiscal reserves, they can import resources in an environment where supply exceeds demand. Internal infrastructure spend will only help them position better for a global recovery, at a significant discount and will help their own consumers. They don't owe the West, the West is going to owe them. When the global economy gets traction again the Chinese will be tooled up and inventory ready to take competitive advantage while the West still struggles to pay off debt. Forget K-Mart, it's C-Mart that's going to come out on top
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Shard
Super Contributor
So whats the average time it takes our market to realise its getting excited over nothing again? 2 days?
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john_1
Super Contributor
That has got to be one of the most boring opens I have seen on the US in months, so slow I had to go check bloomburg in case there was a delayed start.
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Not applicable
Good buck on the short side tho :)
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Shard
Super Contributor
Think the yanks have got it right for once, they're falling.
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Electrox
Super Contributor
The last time the yanks fell, we help up flat to slightly down on our markets.. The problem is.. and has been that when morning come,US DOW Futures are looking bright and sunny and our markets are in noman's land again.. this is a day traders market now.. swing traders are being swinged
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_nova
Super Contributor
FWIW, step away from 1min to 60min charts and take a look at daily and weekly charts. Yes, it's obvious; we're in a broad consolidation period that's fooled just about everyone because of the wild and deep swings. We're not in a new bull, not by a long shot. We're still well entrenched in a secular bear market where the DOW is ranging between 9600 and 8200. Whichever way it breaks, it will be decisive and will probably bring capitulation by either bulls or bears (depending on the direction of course). I'm trading the swings and nothing else. I have no opinion on which way we're going as that will set an expectation in my mind. I do not know which way we're going and I reinforce that thought every minute by consistently reminding myself we're seeing consolidation. The biggest mistake I can possibly make in this market is to get big ideas on short timescales.
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YNWA
Super Contributor
Nova, spot on hombré...Deutsche just lowered its target for GM's EV @ ZERO!....as Jimmy Cliff usta say "the harder they rise they harder they fall"...or sumting pretty close to that..
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_nova
Super Contributor
Here's an interesting one... maybe someone can confirm or debunk what I think I'm seeing. DOW monthly chart going back 30 years... The only times the DOW has even touched it's monthly WMA200 over the past 30 years is during the recession in the early eighties, the recession at the beginning of this century, and now. The difference is that now the DOW is trading below it's monthly WMA200 for the first time (didn't happen in the eighties or early 2000's). Currently the monthly WMA200 is at 10,078 and will likely prove to be the mother of all resistance lines. OMO
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john_1
Super Contributor
Nova the Dow did break its trend line going back to the 1980's so you are right...
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john_1
Super Contributor
Nova send me an email I will send you a few comments on the subject. [email protected]
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_nova
Super Contributor
thanx John, sent you a mail. I appreciate any info I can get on the subject. It's well worth studying history for similarities
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barry_1
Super Contributor
thanks,Nova,John very informative....anyways u can now both larf at my expense....at the moment,i've ended up with the same number of CALLS and PUTS on the TOPI.I assure u it was not planned!Just changed my mind so many times in the last couple of weeks. To correct, i've decided to let the market choose the direction then finally re-inforce that direction and lighten the other!
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Russ
Super Contributor
The farther backward you can look,the farther forward you are likely to see-Winston Churchill.
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venice
Super Contributor
Not so bullish anymore!!
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john_1
Super Contributor
well just goes to show what a diffrence a day makes.
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