Sorry Guys a little off the direct topic, but if you look at HAR and GFI should they reach the same levels as in March when Gold was at a high? If you look at HAR in more detail it reached 12000, currently at 8850 so that would be a nice run, or are we going to see resistance at 9500?
USD Index is key. As long as it stays below 80 the party is on in stocks and commodities. There is an almighty resistance at 80 and the Fed and other USD interests are doing their level best to get it above. If it breaks above 80 decisively, then all bets are off and we'll be coming down hard. Personally I favour that 80 will hold and that the rally will continue with irrational exuberance. OMHO
Oil to yes. I'm no expert, but sinse 1979 economics class [gold close to 1000 then & 1$bought ZAR 70-80c!] got the impression they print Dollars & buy gold to reduce Dollar strength, fight deflation & boost economy. To protect Dollar, fight infation & cool down economy they sell their gold for Dollars. Donit before &'ll do it again. OMHO [ maybe not soon this time]
Agree US needs weaker Dollar desperately. So gold @ 2000 $ @ R2 evenly possible, but will the US allow runaway inflation, say 10-15%. Don't get me wrong i'm bearish on Dollar [thus bullish on about everything else.] If inflation get out of hand though, they might turn around with nasty effects. Not likely, but possible.