Zim Meltdown

[RobK]

Lets open a thread on how we see the pending catastrophy affecting our market in the short term. while in the longer term it will be good for SA businesses, are we looking at wild swings here or has it been discounted already?

[SimonPB]

zim stopped effecting our market about 5 years ago.

[topgun]

how will a meltdown in Zim be good for SA businesses in the long run??????

[Preston]

1. We don't have to worry about exchange control when it come to Zimbabwe. 2. SA company can actually utilised their liquid cash more profitable in our economy instead of dealing with a hyperinflationary economy. 3. Thoses who are responsible in consolidating Annual financial statement can spends more time with their family and less time at work trying to translate hyperinflation revenue into a more stable cuurency. 4. And LASTLY , we can actually shut the door on "Monkey Man" and not inherent their problem. Baised opinion, but still honest!

[RobK]

There will be opportunities when the rebuild comes into play (providing there is a stable governemnt in power!!!)

[#6]

Quote taken off Moneyweb - "Mugabe, a rather toasty subterranean future awaits you, you porcine faced simian coprolite"

[RobK]

Not really understanding what those fancy words mean I am sure that they are NOT complementary

[#8]

Pending catastrophe? - I have been in and out of Zim on business regularly over the past 5 years, and every time I have been there, people say "it just can't get any worse than this" and "there is a pending catastrophe" and "things are really about to fall apart". Its a bit like the markets - how many times do traders say to themselves "the price cannot move up any further" or "the price cannot move down any further" and it does! My view is that our market has left Zim out of the equation for so long (and therefore is no longer pricing any catastrophe), that when this "catastrophe" does take place, it really will affect us badly.

[topgun]

funded by? a stable govt. doesn't exist in Africa - Zim's infrastructure has been thoroughly destroyed and a tax base no longer exists to support the civil service, never mind to fund capex. most critical skills have also left while you sit with a starving population of some 12m. to have such a delinquent neighbour is not good for any country, least of all SA with its own multiplicity of problems.

[CHATTYCHAT]

Very (very) important thought... well said. And the political checkmate with a man who supported our local brothers during the bad years is calling for payback time.

[SimonPB]

greg, affect us in what way? The massive migration is already happening, economy has collapsed, etc. Sure it can get way worse - but I still don't see how it affects us any more, or further that it causes us serious hassle? The zim issue has long been priced in.

[#12]

Simon, just my view. I just think that the market USED TO react to the "this is now really the end" scenario when it was sketched by commentators - it stopped doing that a long time ago. I just think that when it really IS the end (and we will only know that when it actually happens - people thought that it really was the end 5 years ago) the market will react. The extent of the reaction (whether it occurs in the short or the long term) is yet to be seen, but I really think it will be a very short term reaction. Don't know if I'm making any sense.

[#13]

Simon, another thing ... people were also sayng 5 years ago that "it can't get any worse" - maybe it can ... heaven forbid this (and the thought is just too frightening to even contemplate and think through to its logical conclusion), but we haven't, for example, seen any genocide yet. Humans have shown themselves to be capable of the unthinkable before (Nazi Germany, Rwanda, etc). Really don't want to be alarmist, but I don't think the risk should be underestimated.

[SimonPB]

but markets are forward looking, so when they decide this really is the end - then they will be looking at the up swing and price accordingly?

[#15]

Don't disagree with you - if it is priced in (and this is the more likely scenario, given the premise that everything in the future is priced in (which is the basis of any good trading system), imagine where we would be on the ALSI without Zim - 35000? 40000?

[SimonPB]

nah, I think international investors finally worked out that Zim and SA are seperate countries - took them a few years. But I don't believe it has held us back at all.

[dilligaff]

Not sure about there being no genocide Greg - read about the infamous 5th Brigade activities (North Korean trained) in Northern Matabeleland in the early 80's when they wholesale slaughtered the Ndebele folks, since Robadog's crowd are predominantly Shona
www.rhodesia.nl/Matabeleland%20Report.pdf

[#18]

the current zim situation is very dear to my heart as i have very strong ties with zim because i know many zimbabweans. I hope that zim will recover soon but that is being very hopeful.Zim's problems will have huge implications on SA in terms of a large number of refugees that have already started entering SA which will in turn put pressure on the SA gov thus putting pressure on SA's economy.

[Spike]

If it were coprophage,it would mean 'eater' of that stuff. So...

[#20]

What a disgraceful example of an African leader . Robert Magabe and his government took over a prosperous well managed country that made a magnificent contribution to the Southern African region and turned it into poverty and ruin that will now have to be fed and supported by its neighboring countries.