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bull trend is over! or is it really? does it really matter?

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Not applicable
Forgive me if i am naive or inexperienced but reading this forum as well as many other articles almost everybody locally and internationally are trying to predict the crash/retracement/pullback or what ever you wish to call it... My point is if you are an investor monthly chart should be your priority and weekly to monitor early activities. as an investor you are looking for growth not every penny so why then is the time of the pullback significant? surely one should have a limit to say thats where i get out if this happens etc... and for traders well even more so.....is what happens next really that significant when you are "safe" regardless of what happens based on risk management? both investor and trader have entry and exit criteria which suit them, why then is the daily stress of "is today that day we crash" relevant? curious fellow. opinions anybody?
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26 REPLIES 26
Super Contributor
Little story...Every friday afternoon , i usually go to the gym, run about 6km... and then i go and relax in the sauna. For me, time stand still... The first 15 mins in the sauna is extremely enjoyable but thereafter i start to get a feeling of discomfort. The longer i sit, the longer the discomfort and the initial joy is gone..... Morale of the story.. Most traders are not feeling the joy in this market
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Super Contributor
Lazy, you are right, the market movement should not really stress you out if you have a well planned exit.....and remember, before you get into the sauna, decide when you would be getting out....get out at the time you decided or you could get burnt.
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Super Contributor
Many investors/traders are scared to take new position in this market. I agree that existing position does offer some degree of flexibility.
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Super Contributor
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Not applicable
i think many people are afraid to get burnt or better still give back some profits to stay safe. the best opportunities are now although that may bite me later on if you learn now whilst there is chaos you become better. if there is a new trend all you doing is going up up and up.
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Super Contributor
Nobody can pick tops or bottoms, if someone tells you he did, he was just lucky. Just shorten those stop losses and remember the trend is your friend. In my humble opinion, the bulls are always stronger than you think and the bears are very quick when they start !The correction will be fast.
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Super Contributor
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Not applicable
Thought of the day: The market is function of liquidity (money supply) when theres lots of money going round it goes up, when theres less around it goes down ;)

Heads up, watch out for 18 June...
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Chopchop
Contributor
Sure as a trader it makes sense but as an investor I wouldn't sell a share on price action, only if the company turns bad. So without an exit plan related to price when investing it makes sense to build up some cash while things are expensive and trade with it for now but don't make any long term investments until things are looking cheaper. Thats what I'm doing for now anyway.
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Not applicable
human nature and bragging recognition perhaps those top and bottom callers seek.... the amount of s&p 500 articles out there with warning titles is quite funny perhaps its to cause a stir who knows. what i did find is that since moving to intraday opinions dont matter at all irrespective of who says it. price does.
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Valued Contributor
BC you are right (not on 18 June but money supply), what kills a bull market, increasing interest rates ..
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Regular Contributor
For the first time in years I am starting to panick as well. It seems only Simon is still "confortable" in this market environment.
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Regular Contributor
For the first time in years I am starting to panick as well. It seems only Simon is still "confortable" in this market environment.
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Valued Contributor
and David, check this Fridays FinWeek cover ..
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Valued Contributor
an it not about being comfortable with the market .. the market is mad, always has been always will be .. it about being comfortable with my strategy .. my long term cares not about corrections, crashed or rallies .. it buys when cheap and hold forever (ideally) .. the trading system will trade and enter trades as an when the system says so, always in direction of primary trend .. primary trend is up and remains so until it isn't, then it is down .. neither strategy tries to predict the future coz I know without doubt that humans useless at that
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Not applicable
spread the net wider

any money supply...try mapping stimulus to the market (when it started and stopped) ;)
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Not applicable
despite me being more short term index and medium term equity im starting to think Moxima may just get her weekly top40 flag target 49150 she has been talking about.thats if we stop meeting 45000 so regularly
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Valued Contributor
sure tis is a QE fuelled rally since 2009 pretty much .. but QE is not exiting, the volume rushing in is slowing, but they ain't ever pulling it back out .. they'll quietly let them mature .. and this QE withdrawal is going perfectly fine, well telegraphed and markets hitting highs as the money in remains .. so how does it exit ?? rising rates as always coz then one has an alternative to creating wealth aside from markets ..
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Not applicable
I like it! This its different, every other time QE has been pulled markets drop practically on the day (since 1850). Only thing different this time is that theyve been slowly pulling it out, but the end result is always the same. Market is like a heroine addict, a withdrawal is never good for an addict, whether cold turkey or a slow withdrawal.
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