if gold closes below this evening, I think we are going to see an exit from the gold miners. Analyst target prices for ANG (R303), Harmony (R107) were pegged at $900 per ounce, so I think the fear of a consolidation below 900 should be sufficient to push these prices downward. IMO only of course
DRD costs for the December quarter in dollars per oz are $654(taken from their interim report.)down from their Sept quarter of $755 per oz....i expect IN MY OPINION ONLY that the gold price is likely to start to rise by Thursday again.
Gold demand in 2009 is around 30% driven by ETF's. in 2008, ETF's accounted for around 10%. So we can expect a lot more volatility. My question is, what happens to the physical gold, when someone unwinds their ETF position. Do the market makers sell the physical?
Don't know about sideways barry, I am worried about what happens when ETF's unwind their position and dump the physical back on hte market. This will suddenly lead to massive oversupply. If ETF's can't keep their levels, then things are going to look pretty bad for gold, IMO
here's the thing... GLD supposedly added 48 tonnes last month???? Hello? Where in the universe did they get 48 tonnes of AU physically delivered to any vault, anywhere? It's a ponzi scheme boeta, you're holding a paper promise to deliver AU that is simply not there
Nova, ETF demand forecast for the year is supposed to account for around 1300 tonnes of physical, so 48 doesn't seem like such a high number? But it does answer my question somewhat, they do move physical in and out of hte market
and s***** recycling in 08 was something like 1250 tonnes .. likely to be more this year, this is one of the ignored problems .. pretty much all gold ever mined is still around and when price rallies it comes out of the woodwork and back onto the market ..
Excerpt from Casey's Report: The precious metals took one to the chin again yesterday, with no sharp moves but just a steady price erosion. While a dollar that slipped against the euro might have been supportive, retreating crude played against the metals, and an irrationally exuberant flood of money into equities likely drained enthusiasm as well. And gold is battling a jewelry slump. "The Gold and Jewelry Group in Abu Dhabi has said that gold sales there slumped in January and February by 70% year-on-year," Commerzbank analysts said. "While the group assumes that demand will pick up again if gold prices decline further, this could take several months more given the economic climate." Technicians were quick to jump on the day's action, as they believe it important that gold has fallen beneath its 50-day moving average, which it had not done so far this year. That is a bearish signal, in their opinion, and sets up a test to see whether gold can recapture and hold the m.a. in the next few days. If not, the bears are calling for a prolongation and deepening of the downturn that's been in place since the metal broke past $1,000/oz. just over two weeks ago. "Gold is under pressure as money flows back into the broader market," according to Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Commodities Alert. In addition, Kerr said, "It seems that for the moment the inflation fears and systemic risk fears are starting to diminish and investors who have access to funds are starting to see opportunities in the other commodities as well as equities." But looking ahead, Kerr noted that, "Inflation remains a major problem down the road and all of this stimulus and printing of money is going to exacerbate it," creating the strongest possible conditions for a prolonged gold bull market.