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Online Share Trading

Engage and learn about markets and trading online

lets pretend for a moment

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Valued Contributor
that gold really is a relic. And that the fact that the USD is a fiat currency really matters. And that one day everybody wants to sell USD and T-Bills and find a new safe haven.

What do they buy? What will be the next safe haven asset?
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19 REPLIES 19
Super Contributor
T-BILL's From China :)
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Super Contributor
try the SNG dollar...
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Not applicable
Oil? Industrial metals? Carbon credits?
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Super Contributor
here's a scary one... not so long ago in feudal times the individual's wealth was measured by the number of healthy slaves or serfs he owned and who could be put to productive use at the least cost. Value was not so much in the currency (or barter systems) of those times but in the difference between what was paid for the slave and what he produced over his life time. Think myriads of taxes, tolls, protectionism, regulation, "security" threats, etc... we're not so far from feudalism being the next wealth spinner as many would like to think. Only a fringe opinion :-)
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Valued Contributor
nova, the marxisst would tell you we already have that with capital(ism) exploiting labour. And that the next step is revolution.
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Not applicable
That's a very good idea - I cancel all mine! We just need to devise a scheme to trade labour on a stock exchange...
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Super Contributor
yeh why not?....The world already trades Carbon Credits,which if u come to think about it ,has been created from nothing,ony some distant document,created by the United nations!
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Super Contributor
Well, well, I was wondering if anyone would pick up on the inuendo. You be a smart lad Simon! Yep, when you look at the tech revolution the reality is that people are now working longer more stressful hours than they did in the industrial revolution. And real disposable income's value has been going backwards for at least the past two decades. William Reese-Mogg writes quite eloquently on these things even though he's a bit of a codger. Problem with Marxism is that it does for the greater good at the expense of the greater good... sort of like the zero sum game...whatever you put in someone else taketh away. It empowers prime evil, encourages the indolent ingrate and destroys everything else. But on a serious note: Take away metal's intrinsic value and remove trust from fiat currency and what are you left with? Barter? The question is what will be scarce AND have perceived intrinsic value? The problem is that much of what will be scarce into the near future has only temporary intrinsic value since it will be consumed i.e water, food, energy. Shelter has a goodly shelf life but is a risk as a store of value as history proves you may only keep what you can hold (imagine owning property in Harare). This is a tough question to answer nuh? I'm not a gold bug but I have a feeling the metal itself has a few surprises up it's sleeve as the COMEX price of XAU is way below what it sells for on eBay (but I wouldn't stake my life on it as you can't eat it).
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Regular Contributor
Come to think of it Barry, what about spekbome as a safe haven! One of these days we will all struggle for a liter of oxygyn
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Not applicable
Simon, the fact that you pose this question means that there are no real other alternatives a lot of people agree with. I direct your attention back to the relic.
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Super Contributor
okay Simon,you have me,i'm jumping ship and not going to use the G word,err not the other G word of course!...I think they should keep PLATINIM as the reserve currency as its the most precious metal out there!
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Valued Contributor
we do trade labour - that is what capatilism and by proxy the markets/JSE is all about.
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Valued Contributor
well then one of two things. People never loose faith (or face) in the USD. If they do then there will be a massive move to whatever the market considers safest. Hence my Q. Move to what, and I want to remove the relic from the debate because that is the easy (and too my mind) wrong answer.
,br>If we can spot whatever it is before hand, then we can make oney, perhaps if the USD looses face.
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Not applicable
Ah, but we need a mechanism to trade the labour itself, not the companies that utilise the labour - similar to trading the Relic directly through Newrelic, instead of the Relic mining companies. Then we can hedge against our salaries decreasing by buying put warrants for the type of labour that we do, and speculate on what type of labour will increase the most in value over time.
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Not applicable
What about weapons-grade Plutonium at about $4000 per gram?
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Super Contributor
Here's another interesting hypothesis (I just can't remember where I read it, so some tongue in cheeck in order). This may get the Armageddonists and Conspiracy fringe sweating. The problem with a real world currency is... is it really that valuable? Global airlines use what is called a NUX or Neutral Unit of X-change. Cross-rates cause them endless problems so when they calculate fares they enter the actual payment currency value, which in the system is always converted and stored in NUX, but on the screen, ticket, wherever, is always shown in the relevant currency. This includes the USD. Doesn't matter whether you're paying in ZAR for a ZAR trip or ZAR for a USD trip or whatever, the value is stored in NUX with associated cross-rate. This apparently makes backend accounting much easier to manage due to the legions of taxes and airport charges etc involved. It also enables them to generate much more relevant stats since they now have a static "currency" they can use to measure metrics across realworld currencies on a level playing field. The point is, why not have a global digital NUX that is used to measure the NUX value of all currencies? Decouple from the USD as a physical currency and "purchase" digital NUX. The store of value then is not physical but the actual real world perceived value of a currency relative to other currencies. So for example a productive country's currency would have a NUX value of 10 while the Zim dollar would be 0.000000000000000001, and voila, you have measure and store of value that is not distorted. The important thing to make this work would be to keep the NUX as a digital measure of value which is bankable. It may never become a paper currency in it's own right. Yes, I know it merely replaces one reserve with another but the point is that it is globally neutral (does not belong to any one country) and can thus not be abused as a reserve currency such as is happening right now with the USD
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Super Contributor
food mate it will be food and clean water ,never know maybe buy a piece of zim when it turns and the basket case becomes a bread basket and we are in the game
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Contributor
How about a new independant "currency" which would be worth more every time one of the constituent "basket of currencies" devalues. This could be a new world currency and would draw it's value from agreements with the participants. So if a country devalued their money they would have to make good the difference in value of "the new currency's" holding of that country's money. This "pain" would prevent countries from indiscrimnately devalueing and would eventually establish itself as a trustworthy currency. This money could form the basis of international settlements. Am I making any sense?
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Contributor
How about a new currency drawing its value from agreements between main world currencies. The agreements would bind participants to make good to the fund any devaluations of participants' currencies.
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