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opportunities will come later today.....

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Not applicable
I have feeling the opportunities will come after the US open today.....it will gap up hugely prolly to previous support and then sell off by which time we will be ready to as well.....just a feeling ...lets see what happens....in the meantime a drive round the peninsula in an open car is a good idea....
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34 REPLIES 34
Not applicable
and still got the feeling the slightest bit of new bad news will wipe out these gains
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platsak
Super Contributor
Thinks that the criteria to check the effectiveness of the band aid is to measure the markets reaction to the next bad news coming through. Few banks reporting this week.
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venice
Super Contributor
One swallow a summer doesn't make. The reversal yesterday is a lot of short covering. The Dow rally from yesterday was on quite low volume. I expect that we will have a short sharp rally but I suspect the smart money will sell into it. I want to see a higher low and higher high before I commit. For the rest its day trading.
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Electrox
Super Contributor
seems everyone is expecting the same same thing here. I get a little worried when that that happens...
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_nova
Super Contributor
Looks like Financials, Basics and Resi carrying the day, with Plats going bos. Chartist, Tribal, I agree, this is a big setup, fundamentals are missing from this one and I would go so far as to call it a relief rally. Is this a bottom? I doubt. Here's how I see it... The next CDS fiasco comes up on 23 Oct with WaMu. If it is handled the same as Lehman then there's going to be trouble. However, what needs to happen is that all of the outstanding CDS need to be put on a central exchange and the variable exposure needs to be made public. Only then will things settle. If exposure is not made public, then it sends a clear message and all recovery bets are off and we're then probably looking at a long dragged out bottoming process that will be volatile to say the least. That said, I did take a long on financials yesterday...just to cover me backside. But my trigger finger is very itchy
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JohnnyCash
Super Contributor
Am in agreement with said opinions and dont think this is at all over. However, I do think we are getting close because it is said that the markets will take the least number of people with it on its next run, with everyone starting to question the move and doubting the sustainability this is starting to filter through. Just this mornings comments on OTS have me thinking that the market's convinced the majority of its participants that it just cannot go up with everything thats happening. Prolly a good spot for the market to start discounting the future after the bank crisis.....
Will it just keep on climbing? I doubt it, but it certainly feels like Oct08 will be seen as the low of this bear run.
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Not applicable
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john_1
Super Contributor
When everybody is thinking the same nobody is thinking... We are up until we are not. its that simple... If we have seen the lows of the day (big if) then we have a 6 day Island bottom.. a massive reversal signal..
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Not applicable
John u never fail to see what others dont.....err in case u were confused that was not a compliment....
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john_1
Super Contributor
Yaun!! with 700 points in the bank for the day..I can feel an afternoon snooze coming on.
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barry_1
Super Contributor
John,see my comments under warrants....What i think every one is missing is that,although this market is being pushed up at this stage,it cannot be allowed to fail,well at least in the short term,so the upward momentum is likely to last at least a couple of weeks....I'm also interested in your island bottom(not personally though!),i believe its a signal that there will climb slowly from here on....Small cap shares might start to slowly recover.
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john_1
Super Contributor
Barry why small caps?.. there is only a very small chance this rally will be sustained and if it does it is the big caps who will benifit..OMO...small caps offer no dividends as cover and small caps need confidence in the market.
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barry_1
Super Contributor
u r right of course,meant in the resources where some mid-caps lurk,although at this stage i'm avoiding most minerals,but rather fancy PPC though.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
barry, I interview an small cap asset manager ion radio tonight, he says that small caps are late cycle and will turn after the biggies ...
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barry_1
Super Contributor
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john_1
Super Contributor
Small caps = confidence and that is the one thing we are all short of right now.
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Not applicable
John thats nonsense...u are confusing market dynamics with business confidence...Simon I hope u ask your guest to back up his claim with facts because I actually see the opposite....the samll caps have been leading the major moves....Alsi saw a high in May 2008...small caps already led the way in Nov 2007....some 6 months earlier....the decline of the small caps has in fact been less that the large caps relative to say May 2006....so the smll caps are leaders not followers...
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
small caps/altx have indeed out preformed the topi over recent years and are neck an neck ytd. an they peaked earlier, but that wasn't what he said, his comment was that when things inprove and the economy turns up again, small caps lag initially and then storm ahead .
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_nova
Super Contributor
LIBOR O/N looking great at 2.1813 but the 3MONTH LIBOR is still ominously high at 4.635. However, DOW futures looks like another mighty rally today at +257.
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