red market

[saash]

So you are - talking heads telling us to go long :-)

[#2]

Am switching my unit trusts to the income fund option and expect a fall within a few weeks. Investor's Daily Edge says:As you can see, despite the surge in the markets, trading volume is low and has been declining. Low volume suggests there are simply not a lot of buyers. The foundation of a new bull market is not built on low volume. The key to this rally has been the tapering off of aggressive selling. Why? Investors are waiting for higher prices. Taking a loss is difficult for most investors. Investors typically bring a "get even and get out" attitude to their portfolios after they've suffered big losses. Look for these buyers to start selling again, the closer they get to "even". On the other hand should this rally falter look for these "even and outers" to lose hope and resume selling. Either way, we will see more selling than buying down the road. Not exactly a prescription for a rising market.

[SimonPB]

what are the switching fees ??

[#4]

I am in The Stanlib linked Classic Range, so it is (I think) a onceoff R125 - not much.In fact if you have a Standard Bank Management Company (not the linked product) standard unit trust (the usual starting at a R2000 lump sum) you can switch for virtually nothing (perhaps R30) from one to the other after you have paid your initial 5 or 6%. This is a really cheap option - just get a Standard Bank unit trust and switch for practically nothing. They give you the end of unit trust day price - only one price per day is given and all are sold and bought at end of day price

[SimonPB]

an we're green ..

[eddy66]

Please pass me the bear fillet please.

[john_1]

NAh we is not green.. all we is, is gap closed...after them boys exit if we come back to green then we is green.

[#8]

US futures positive...more up for the JSE today.

[john_1]

Again Nah! gren US futures before 2.30pm is a bad thing.

[john_1]

now are green.

[saash]

I dunno John - a third visit on the new high, after a retracement to that rally .... this may go through.

[john_1]

If it was so keep why is it taking 3 attempts.. before anything, the US is going to close its gap. 4 pm our time is data.... this will take it up maybe.

[saash]

And indeed it did.

[saash]

123

[#15]

SImon, does todays lower low (red close) not close yr lazy system?

[NJ_1]

A red close does not necessarily signify a lower low. Yesterday's low was 22,453 and today's is 22,493, from what I can see. Also, it would signify and exit out of Simon's lazy system only once you had reached break even, if I understand it correctly.

[TOPIX]

The 20% trailing stop loss is still in play and is therefore the valid exit signal.

[#18]

That's how I understand it - 20% trailing stop until breakeven (which I now understand, thanks, NJ) and only then do we need to start tracking the TOPI for lower lows to exit.

[TOPIX]

The Lazy Trade exit on "lower low" also does not refer to a daily low, but to "Swing lows". So, after breakeven, the stop loss moves to the higher swing low - Look at the last trade, maybe it will be easier to understand when you look at the charts. Trade entered on 13 Jul, swing low formed on 22 Jul (became new stop loss), higher swing low formed on 12 Aug (became new stop loss) and trade stopped out on 17 Aug when Price < Stop loss (12 Aug close).

[#20]

Bugger! I thought I at least understood lower lows. It's not my fault, you know, I've never been able to access Simon's tinyurl. However, I have now looked as you suggested and am I right that the exit will always be the 20% trailing stop loss, even after breakeven? If it's not, too bad, because I've decided that's going to be my exit - anything else is too hard and gives me a headache.