richmont forecasts

[partridge]

the forecasts on this site for rch's future earnings look like they have been made with the accuracy of a darts thrower in the last stages of the DT's - so wide is the variance as to make the consensus virtually meaningless - well certainly to someone like me? So how on earth do you price a share like this( no - not the ruling price in the market!)? The only way that those variances could have emerged (NOTE - in the last 60 days-) is if these lads were/are looking at completely differing underlying econ(c)omic scenarios??

[Harathke]

You're looking at a brokers consensus i.e. not produced by IST specifically.

[SimonPB]

that's exactly the point, when they so wide it tells you there is no consensus, merely uncertainity ..

[partridge]

But the answer( which is not really helpful - but thank you for taking the trouble)begs the question : why doesn't SFM go back to these North South guys and thereafter in a report which you guys publish tell us what leads to/ contributes to such a wide divergence of views? At the moment I have not clue why this divergence exists and as the saying goes information is the stuff I need I would have humbly thought that this sort of thing shouts for an SFM follow- up - some would call that a value add? Last point - tell us who the brokers are in cases like this - and we can ask them directly!

[SimonPB]

because that defeats the point of consensus forcast .. and further because those adding to the survey are anon .. and if they were all exactly the same and in agreement, you wouldn't know the how or why either .. so no different .. if you want detailed research consensus is not the place for it ..