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Online Share Trading

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sasol down?

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Contributor
am i missing something? how is it that sasol comes out with fairly good results (imo) makes some positive announcements and the share gets hammered 3% in a day. don't tell me it's because they are going to change the CEO shortly.
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Super Contributor
notice the rising wedge on Sasol with a diverging RSI. I would avoid it from a technical trading point of view
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Super Contributor
Watch blokes in a pub. What drives behaviour - their expectations, or the reality?
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Not applicable
It's pretty simple to me...this share tracks the oil price, irrespective.
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Valued Contributor
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Contributor
That correlation with the oil price is flimsy. Yes there's the occasional market reaction to load up on SASOL if the oil price goes up but that often dissolves. Anyone seeing some similarities with 2008 here? I reckon 1 or two dominoes have gone over, needs two or three more and we could see an unravelling again. The dominoes I reckon would be - similar crisis to Egypt and Libya in Saudi, Eurpoean country default and an oil country default eg Venezuela or similar and then slippery slope. That said we could get two dominoes falling and no crash, this is all a big stress test for the world economy at the moment.
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Not applicable
and im seeing a head and shoulders on the daily alsi...
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Not applicable
and im seeing a head and shoulders on the daily alsi...
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Super Contributor
and VOD and EXX and CFR
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Valued Contributor
flimsy ?? maybe I need my eyes tested ..
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Not applicable
Was going to say the same thing - looks pretty well correlated to me!
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Super Contributor
IMO - if I understand the recent commentary - the market over rated the good results, and corrections follow suit.
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Contributor
Correl Coefficient for Sasol vs Oil ZAR on monthly returns Feb 2009 to Feb 2011 is 0.53. 47% not explained by oil price. My cut off for tightly correlated is above 0.6. Maybe we looking at correlation using different correl-goggles.
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Super Contributor
How about...investors bought the share when there was a rumour of good results and is simple taken profits now that results are confirmed. I have seen this happen many times....buy the rumour sell on the fact
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Contributor
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Super Contributor
Guys, this is a major heavy weight which means it will always be affected by the ALSI index moves. That means that when global markets move up or down so must sasol, agl & BHP. So much of these daily swings can be attributed to this sentiment based move... Secondly... so what if it moves up or down a few % if you buying it for long term gains and if you trading in Sasol stick to your rules of entry, exit and profit take.
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Valued Contributor
oh no .. somebody did a Correl Coefficient on me .. fair enough ..
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Regular Contributor
Hmmm.. John that 'few' % now startng to look serious on SOL, AMS and most heavy weights..... Only a Libya factor or a longer term downward correction of our market? I ponder - where's the bottom? Can I pick it this time?
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Valued Contributor
well how often do you successfully catch a falling knife before you run out of fingers ??
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Super Contributor
In a boat this size 4.3% drop in a day is somewhat substantial it has kicked in plenty of stop losses!
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