shares prices over valued again?

[#1]

Ja, that was going to be my follow-up point. The difference between trading & investing relates mainly to the timeframe of the bet you are making and the manner in which you manage your risk. The difference between stock market and a casino, is that a) investors / traders know how to manage their risk, b) that there is inherent bias in the system (i.e. long term trend) and c) that there are inefficiencies that result from human nature. Point c) exists in a casino as well, but only if you play man-on-man type games, such as poker, where a skilled player can capitalize on his or her understanding of human emotion.

[SimonPB]

an the casino tilts the table against you in games where it isn't man on man .. such as size limits, 0 and 00 on the wheel etc ..

[#3]

but on the flip side, the stock market introduces the 'rare' event, which wipes out portfolios and makes grown men cry, especially those with too much leverage, or those who decided to put their pensions into the too-big-to-fail corporations like Enron, and Lehman brothers. And then there were those that thought government bonds were the risk free options, and invested in Argentine or Russian bonds. All perfectly valid investment philosophies in their day. Who would have thought that BP was a risky investment 4 months ago?

[SimonPB]

the reality is that humans are very very ba at really assessing risk .. like puutting everything into some winner .. etc ..