so this is what a rally in a bear market looks like....

[louisg]

John how can you be so sure that us value investors don't make money via our investing endervours? Am I correct in assuming that you make a living by trading?

[john_1]

In the last 5 weeks the best performing share on the top40 is down 3.3% the worst is down 29% so nobody holding longs is making money at the moment. The value investors who bought when there was value in 2002 have made money sure.

[louisg]

5 weeks would NOT be considered long term. Since you have chosen to ignore/refuse to answer my question I take it you do not trade for a living.

[john_1]

I do trade for part of my income, I am still learning the tools of my trade which are best descibed as a personalty implant so until I feel that I have developed the nesssary disipline I will continue to use very small amounts of capital as such only suplement my income, however the beauty of trading what ever the time frame( Buffet is a trader using long time frames) I will scale up the business at which time it will be my sole income. I use two trading stratergies one is a long term trading stratergy and one is short term.

[louisg]

Warren Buffet does NOT use technical analysis (TA) to invest in companies. While a short term trader will tend to use TA a long term investor will rely on fundamental analysis. Your approach to trading is a sensible one. Good luck.

[john_1]

the old goat knows more about market psychology than most. All TA is is the study of human emotions (psychology) as they interact in the makets using price as the indicator. When you stop seeing it like lines on a chart and see it as the pulse, the heart beat. You will start to see its value. I would like you to read a book, its called the Black Swan. Its a real jewel.

[john_1]

also you are very wrong about TA being only short term, for example the DOW recently broke its 14 year uptrend tested it and failed to break back above its suport( that the place at which historically buying returned to the market. Instead this was the place that selling resumed indicating that those holding possitions used the better price as a place to sell rather than buy) not a good sign. Also the 30 year trends( if my memory serves has been holding the dollars decline against the pound at the 198/9 level). What ever the time frame the principles still apply as markets are fractal or said diffrently are scalable.

[john_1]

one last thing. FA will tell you WHAT to buy TA will help with the question of WHEN to buy. compounding of weath is a factor of returns (interest x TIME) it seems to me the question of when is the only thing we as active investors are able to controll. But hey! Thats just my oppinion.

[louisg]

I've got/read his first book " Fooled by randomness", interesting. He essentially says that we must not mistake luck for skill.If you believe in what he says then why do you bother to improve your trading skills? Why not leave your fate to the gods of random luck?

[john_1]

to use golf as an analogy... I believe when hitting a tiny golf ball 4oom to a hole the size of a tin can, you are not responsible for were the ball lands (luck) but I am totally responsible and in complete controll of how you hit the ball(skill) when I trade I try to not care as to the outcome of the trade.( random) but I try to be in complete controll of what makes me trade, the set up, the rules that govern my enries and exits , the size of my trades, the way I manage the risks etc ( skill and disipline) so were there is always going to be a measure of luck, persnoal skills and market understanding and timing can greatly effect the outcome.."the more I practice the luckier I get."

[louisg]

If you were to ask Gary Player to respond, I'm sure that he would reply by saying: "The more I practiced the luckier I got."

[john_1]

if you were to ask the Dali Lama to respond he would say "stop looking at the past for answers all we have is the present."

[louisg]

And perhaps Buffet would respond with: "In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield." Good night John.

[john_1]

Good Night.

[Maggie]

Hmmmmm, I see a romance in the making here for John and Louise!!!!