Kwagga there where times I suspected that some brokers worked on that principle that only 10% of traders make money. I suspected that they would wipe out 9 in 10 clients account even before they stated trading and kept bogus accounts like Madoff believing the theory that client would eventually lose all their capital.
There is no logical relationship between the law of large numbers and reversion to mean. 10k coin tossing is the former and it offers no help when predicting the next coin toss. Seriously, read the article, because the exact situation you mention is shown to be wrong. This could save you money in the future. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Although this discussion reminds me of one I might have with a homeopath. At some point, there's no money in it. If you have some evidence for your thinking from a vaguely reputable website, put it up.
Richardw I am just speaking from my studies and observations in my studies, which I did have on a web site but unfortunately the site has closed so I am looking for a new web host. The web page I created explains it in detail so I am reluctant to believe otherwise because my conscience does not allow me to believe something which is wrong in my observations on the subject. I am a reasonable person and have found no other literature on the subject that can out weigh my findings. I simply don't believe that a coin has a fifty fifty chance regardless of the previous result. It is a contradictory statement when we all know that the result often is the same, in other words it can and will fall 100 times in a row eventually if you spin enough times, so how can it be 50/50?
GVV.Perhaps this helps. Before you flip a coin you don't know what's going to happen so you have 50-50 odds. But after you flip the coin you definitely know what happened! After you flip a coin, the probability that you got a result is 1. You definitely flipped the coin. Definitely, definitely. So AFTER you've flipped nine heads, the probability of flipping a tenth head is 1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x1x 1/2 = 1/2. The chances of the next flip being heads is always 1/2(assuming a fair coin). Now the probability of flipping ten heads in a row(or any other combination), before the outcome of your first flip is known, is 1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2x1/2= 1/1024.
Sorry what you just said makes no sense to me. I can assure you that on average if you flip a fear coin 4072 times you will have flipt 10 heads in a row and 10 tails in a row. Put 10 in the formula I have posted above and you will get 4072, try flip a coin 10 times 4072 times or 40,720 times I assure you you will get 10 heads and 10 tails in a row at least 8 times, a 20% deviation to play safe.
GVV. I'm not disputing that on "average" that if one flips a fair coin so many times that one SHOULD get so many heads(or tails) in a row. What you refuse to accept is that each flip has a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails irrespective of the previous result/s. It's purely scientific. Accept it buddy. Now a "fear" coin is another story:-)
By spinning more than one side of the coin in a row contradicts the motion that a coin has a 50/50 chance, if 50/50 were true the coin would fall only once on each side every time. Here is the link to my web page explaining a 50/50 chance. http://stat.awardspace.info/#gamble