speculates

[G_V_V]

Traders are like the evil eye from the movie the Lord of the Ring, always looking where it is most likely to bleed. Sometimes the plan backfires and the evil eye gets whiplashed like today. LOL.

[Oom_Boom]

Evil eye...... beware the hobbit..

[#3]

or you trade the gap and make 300pts profit

[Preston]

300 pts on the ALMI is not much profits.

[richardw]

Depends on how many you have, I guess. It's small so you can add and remove in finer granularity than ALSI.

[G_V_V]

There is no such thing as gaps, market value is market value.

[richardw]

Ok, so he traded an imaginary gap and made a real 300 points. Thanks for clearing that up.

[G_V_V]

If you trade that way you will be square less the brokerage in the long run. It's a fifty fifty chance. Some people who trade this imaginary gap get it right in sequence just like one would get five, six or seven heads in a row when you spin a coin but over long runs its equal. There is a formula that determines sequence of a fifty - fifty chance, it is T=2((2(to the power of n+1))-(n+2)) Where "T" stands for the number of times a coin is tossed; and "n" stands for the level of x number combinations tossed. For example, to determine how many tosses, it will take to reach 7 heads and 7 tails in a row. The answer is 494. The "n+1" equals, 7+1=8. Two to the power of 8=256. The "n+2" equals, 7+2=9, subtract it from 256=247, times it by 2=494.

[#9]

too many brackets and twirly things in your explanation. Can you give the summarized version?

[G_V_V]

There is an order to the sequential distribution of a fifty-fifty chance which does not veer to far from the deviated average. It is not more difficult to spin twenty heads in a row than it is to spin two heads in a row it is just more rare and no one can change that not even ladyluck. Gary Player said the more I practice the luckier he gets, that is because the more you spin the coin the closer the chance is that the higher sequence of spins will come.

[stores]

I cannot find any flaw in GVV's maths...Its like Clark calling tails for nine times in a row and loosing to heads eight times (I think)..The next time he calls tails he has a 50-50 chance of winning the toss.

[stores]

I cannot find any flaw in GVVs maths...Its like Clark calling tails for nine times in a row and loosing to heads eight times I think..The next time he calls tails he has a 50-50 chance of winning the toss.

[Russ]

Why does Gary Player get luckier when GVV practises more?

[Skerp]

Best advice still is/remains "trade the price", wonder where I've heard that. Market value/fancy pants theories just impress you're friends, like "military intelligence/ civil servant, very hard/impossible to find/define!

[#15]

your statistical logic does not take into account the risk reward ratio. And for 300pts on the ALSI (trading ALMI is stupid) the cost is 1.3 pts either way with a trading spread on average of 7 pts. So spread risk and costs amount to around 10pts. With a 50pt stoploss, and a minimum of 100pts in the gap required - the odds are pretty good you will make money if you are disciplined enough to trade the same set of conditions every time. There is no instrument on the JSE that gives you a cheaper trading cost than the ALSI futures contract

[Rams]

I have to agree with Skaap on this....if your win/loss ratio is 50/50, that will make you very rich in trading...when my system gives me a win /loss ratio of 30/70, I make a profit...if it gives me 50/50 then I have an ATM!

[G_V_V]

Stores if you have span the coin 1000 times and you got 700 heads and 300 tails is the next spin also a 50/50 chance? If it is does the past 1000 spins not contradict that each spin has a 50/50 chance? However the formula I stated above explains why the discrepancy occurs, The deviation occures because the higher set of numbers must come.

[G_V_V]

If each spin was a 50/50 chance the result of spinning a coin would be head, tails, head, tails, head, tail each time forever. No one would ever spin two, three, four heads or tails in a row. It does fall more than once because it is not a 50/50 chance, only the total over large numbers are 50/50. The individual spin falls in the sequence of the formula not 50/50.

[G_V_V]

What I meant above is the fact that one can spin more heads or tails than the other contradicts that each spin has a 50/50 chance. Only the total of large numbers is 50/50.

[G_V_V]

How can there be a guarantee that the gap will close if the other world markets move when this market is closed. There is a reason why the gap was made in the first place, the future traders see the other markets moving higer or lower so they anticipate where the market value will be the next day. There is no free lunch just risk reward or loss.