statistician

[SimonPB]

this si the important point in all of this ==>. "The fact that over time the markets trend upwards means there SHOULD be more green candles than red"

[Rams]

Like African Bank?

[prancing_horse]

Are you squint?, ABL's trend was down for months and months and even there, there were plenty of green candles (small) and monstrous red ones.

[SimonPB]

african bank you would note is not and was not a market, it was a stock .. very important point ..

[Rams]

I can point out LEHMAN Brothers but your point taken....was just wondering about BIAS ?

[Bouwer]

I think the natural bias is that the market is going up and that is the view of most fund managers, individuals investors, and any outsiders.

[SimonPB]

a market is an index and an index by its design goes higher .. losses get booted out winers get added .. so indices go up

[Brainware]

What about the Martingale strategy? http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/martingale.asp You may need some wide pockets and true "the trend" is your friend is another variable that influences the odds

[Bouwer]

But isn't that what any trader does? Bet that he will make a win, if he/she doesn't they recoup and try again.. I don't double down though.. One ALSI contract plus maybe 5 point spread. 2% stop loss, 100K Cap. 5 losing trades in a row will set you back Will set you back R42K... just to make up 2K that you lost initially and another 2k profit..

[THRESHOLD]

Since my apple is green and certainly not a raven; and since Ravens are always black, my green apple increases the confidence of the assertion that Ravens are always black...

[Bouwer]

As a side note though, where is Preston? Sure he would have loved trolling this post?

[Rams]

about flipping coins...green or red will be the same flipping odds....but it has no relevance to profit or loss as far as the market is concerned....remember just one RED candle can wipe out profits from 9 green candles...but your green to red was still a win ratio of 9:1

[THRESHOLD]

Personally I prefer the coin toss - I get a 50/50 chance. With the market seem to "think" my way to slimmer odds than that.

[samoa]

Lesson:Do not invest all your coins in the likes of Abil. Keep some to flip!

[THRESHOLD]

ABIL is not an investment - it lacks the balance sheet. It's an out and out punt.

[Rams]

its called mad money...6 of those in a mad money portfolio....the coin odds will give a 50% loss...with some good money management,you still come out a winner.

[koos2]

Could you name the other 5 again please?

[Rams]

rather not...after ABL

[Rams]

for the conservative...AIP and SHP; based on management in both those, can turn around

[#20]

otherwise known as the dogs of the dow strategy (we came up with a JSE equivalent some time ago can't recall what though - teefie of the JSE, something like that). A well documented strategy, with well documented lack of success.