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Bouwer
So are there any statistician on OST? If there is a green candle today, what are the odds of there being a green candle tomorrow? Seems there more green candles you have in a row, the likelihood of a red increases. Would be interesting to see results even though it's not anything to go on..

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 10:59 AM

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41 REPLIES 41

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AJ_

Contributor

19-08-2014 12:05 PM

50% since it can only be Red or Green

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Bouwer
Flip a coin 50 times and tell me how many times in a row you got tails twice or 3 times in a row... Than try getting 10 flips in a row to land on tails.. Should take you better part of a night..

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 12:16 PM

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koos2
Buying multiple tickets for the same lottery does not increase odds. Each day is a separate event, aint it? so 50%.

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 12:19 PM

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SimonPB

Valued Contributor

19-08-2014 12:27 PM

it I recall, record is 9 green in a row, happened three times in last 15 years ..

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Bouwer
Yes and no... But the chances of the exact same numbers being drawn again in the lottery is like getting the numbers right so the more you play eventually the odds turn in your favor..

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 12:30 PM

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gamma
The odds are 50/50 every time. They are independent events. To think that a green candle on one day influences the colour of the next is a human bias, a very real one, but a bias nonetheless. Do not be fooled into thinking that the actual probabilities are any different

Contributor

19-08-2014 12:49 PM

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Rams

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 01:05 PM

agree, right down to a minute candle

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gamma

Contributor

19-08-2014 01:57 PM

Spot on Rams

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Bouwer
That's why I am asking if there are any statisticians. Try the coin trick and flip 10 tails in a row... You can start over 10 times, if you get it right I will send you R100. May I suggest taking a video as proof...

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19-08-2014 02:11 PM

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gamma
Bouwer, I appreciate what you are trying to say but I think you are missing my (and Ram's) point. Each flip of a coin does NOT affect the probability of the next coin flip being either heads or tails. Each coin toss has a 50/50 probability of being either heads or tails. The probability of any given coin is not conditional on the preceding one. The overall probability of a combination of events (heads or tails, X times in a row) can be calculated - look up Pascal's Triangle if you want proof of the maths - but again, you can't use past events to predict the probability of the new coin toss being only heads or tails. The only thing that is adjusted is the new probability of the OVERALL event occurring.

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19-08-2014 02:31 PM

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Bouwer
Each day is an event, but so is each month and every year in the market down to the last minute... If your way of thinking was correct than given a set of 100 the split should be 50/50. Apply that to the market and it would trade close to or below 0? There are more green candles than red candles, market has not gone to 0 yet?

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 03:15 PM

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I would argue very strongly against the idea of tomorrows price movement being mutually exclusive of today's. The very nature of trending will put the probability of tomorrow's candle being in the same direction and colour of todays - and by today - I mean generally - because we are clearly not trending right now

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Jessie
There is absolutely no comparison between the totally random flip of a coin and the action of the market. The market is influenced by what happened yesterday together with every trader or investor's interpretation of that action. Nothing infuences the coin but there are millions of infuences in the market

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19-08-2014 03:41 PM

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Rams
Just an an aside.....if your trades match the 50/50 coin ratio ,,,.,then you will be rich. My system works on a 30/70 ratio( win 30 and loss 70),,,, the ration not important, the money managemnt important .....if I get 50/50 out of this market , I will retire 10 times over......the sideways market is where the the other 20% loss goes

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 03:54 PM

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Creature_of_the

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 04:12 PM

The Israel lottery once gave the same winning numbers in 2 out of 3 draws..............

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Rams
No, not zero........becos the total must always be 100...,,,,,,,,and we marketing on a timeline so the actual number of market days is infinity.....spinning the coin 100 times could give different combinations from all reds to all greens...50/50 will be impossible becos you need to flip to infinity....

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 04:24 PM

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prancing_horse
I have seen 14 reds in a row on a roulette table, a number coming up for 3 consecutive spins quite a few, and seen 4in a row once, just as I've seen a roe or column or a doz not coming up for some 40 spins when it should come up every third. The fact that over time the markets trend upwards means there SHOULD be more green candles than red, and if one takes into consideration that the corrections are normally "quite violent", we've seen a few black swans in our time, the obvious answer there has to be more green days than red. Markets rise slowly, but fall rapidly. What is going to happen tomorrow is anyones' guess, 50/50.

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 04:40 PM

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Bouwer
No it is not... We have a set number of days, trade has taken place. If we did go to infinity though, the market will go to zero given a 50/50 chance of being red or green.

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 04:49 PM

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Rams

Super Contributor

19-08-2014 05:00 PM

Infinity will mean end of the world....and what is the probability of that in our lifetime.....

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