3 calls from 3 different friends this morning...one had 160K euros invested with DB now worth 60 K...."im selling im selling the whole &#^#%# lot" similar with other guys....strangely enough the one who was most adamant he wanted to sell sold the lat time on one day before 9/11...he said he got a feeling and has the same feeling....prolly just a coincidence or is it? (bad horror movie soundtrack playing in the background)
no he was in a diversified portfolio which was "low risk"....just prior to the Lehman collapse he called them and said sell...they gave him 100 and 1 reasons not to and indicated according to their models the market only had a 22% chance of going down further...
well, look on the bright side, as it seems like the fear factor is going to ratchet up by an order of magnitude. Now if only the VIX will confirm that. At least on the DOW and Transports we now have a lower low and that will make the theorists happy. Maybe now we'll get capitulation. But the VIX doth VEXES me. Not a good sign!
I see the relatively low VIX as a bearish sign. If the VIX stays flat while the S&P is down, it must that the sellers are (formerly) long-term investors. We have moved from the initial stages of the bear, in which mainly traders and speculators took part, to the central portion, in which long-term and unit-trust investors cash in their chips. The third phase (real panic, or mania for the shorts) is still coming, IMO.
Quite so. I take the VIX, USD Index, and USD adjusted Top 40 as leading indicators. The VIX staying down like this is a very, very bad sign. I'm certain that if they had the VIX in 1930 then current levels would coincide with that hump on the DJIA around Apr 1930.
Guys. Youre not anwering Chartists question. I think he is trying to say that there is no easy way to tell someone that their life savings prablably wont magically reappear. Or that their lifestyle wont be affected. These people are looking for reasurance which is a difficult thing to give in these times. Difficult thing is to get someone to accept loss or to take action to minimise further loss. Good thing about times like these forces us to re access social values. What did you actually tell them Chartist?
i asked them all if they needed the money...none did for the next 15 years....so thats their time horizon...they all had secure jobs...university lecturer with tenure...etc...their bonds were all paid up.. so I told them that I could not make the decision for them ...I did however tell them that the retail investor always sells at the wrong time...and that the worst time to sell is when you are emotional...the one was about to go on a maniacal rampage at his bank...
Are you getting a gap close feeling coming on? I can't stop thinking there must be mounds of cash if we rally this afternoon thanks to a "data" inspired rally from the yanks.. or are things just to bleek to contemplate this?