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where are the mockers and scoffers?

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partridge
Super Contributor
OK you know that CEO's will talk up their group's prospects - which given the deep discount here is understandable - but I want to hear from the marketing 101 geniuses who wrote Faberge off in this forum - funny ,its a bit silent out there? PS even if its going to be worth a half of what Gilbertson says - its still a bargain.
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9 REPLIES 9
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
I don't think this story is anything about Faberge .. I got a better understanding of what Gilbertson is trying here last night from Warren ***** (yes the net nanney won't like his name), forget the eggs .. focus on the consolidation of gems, steel supply and plat geo in their seperate industries .. he tring an small scale BHP .. that said I still think it is his retirement toy ..
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partridge
Super Contributor
It never was about the eggs - but F IS still a significant( GROWTH) part of the strategy - and of course never will be the biggest portfolio entry in PGL- BUT IF HELD (even if only till its sold off - which I think it will be - probably to a chinese PVT EQUITY fund - whatever )-it will on resale generate significant capital to be applied in what BG knows best. BTW this is the non-retiring generation we are talking about - and I can't see this as a 5 year stint for GB?? can you? Besides if he "retires" as long as the sage of omaha then I WILL be happy.
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Not applicable
whats with all the fuss? There is still no real information on Faberge's progress - you have no idea what sort of debts it is exposed to, what its sales volumes are, whether selling luxury jewelry on line is working, nothing. All you have to go on is the word of a CEO. Unfortunately Simon, I still think it is a little about the eggs, because it makes about 25% of current portfolio value - and if they are rotten eggs, (which I do actually doubt), then there is no embedded discount here?
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
it may be the eggs for now (albeit with the caution as you point out) .. but down the line *if* his grand vision comes together then the eggs are pocket money at best ..

to my earlier point on retirement, sure but my point is rather that if this doesn't work out for Gilberston it would be a case of *so what* ..
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
The problem is that the extent of their holdings is so absurdly small (ie. a% of a % of a% of some prospective mine,) that they should be accounted for at a discount to their acquisition cost (ie. they are locked in tiny minority interests and consequently should be at a discount to the value of "cash" in an investment vehicle.) To revalue them and show this as a profit (sounds like the forests in York timbers,) is just smoke and mirrors. There is no substance to this company other than the Gilbertson name.
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partridge
Super Contributor
This is all going down the track of speculation -does Gilbertson come across as a "so what" outcomes person - I don't know - if he was then he would be atypical(?) - but the business components are emerging with a clear objective- strategic metals. F = A BOGOF in the scheme of things - and yes they will proably need to raise capital to really maximise its payback - but its been conservatively valued. Oh and I suppose the KISMET in all this is that Standard has a target price of R6.57.
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partridge
Super Contributor
This is all going down the track of speculation -does Gilbertson come across as a "so what" outcomes person - I don't know - if he was then he would be atypical(?) - but the business components are emerging with a clear objective- strategic metals. F = A BOGOF in the scheme of things - and yes they will proably need to raise capital to really maximise its payback - but its been conservatively valued. Oh and I suppose the KISMET in all this is that Standard has a target price of R6.57
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
no point is that his retirement is secure regardless ..
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Another important point re Gilbertson and BHP. The maneuvering through the 80's and 90's was due to hugely depressed commdity prices - really something of a 25 year bear after the late 70's super-spike. (Miners were walking away from deposits and handing the keys back to government.) Neither Gilbertson - nor anyone else could do that in this environment. As for Faberge - well if it gets going - my guess it will be sold to LVMH, RICHEMONT... so I doubt PGL will ever realise the full upside.
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