why I would not bank on a retracement

[#1]

If there is one thing I have learn't in trading, is that it is better to be in and get stopped out, than to be out and stare at awesome rallies. Waiting for this to pull back is not a great strategy. Markets pull back when people start taking profits, i.e. more sellers enter the market. But when markets keep ticking up slowly slowly like they are now, it means logically that there are no sellers out htere, in other words, nobody is taking profits. My prognosis, expect 3 to 4 days of tight range trading, followed by 1 big 2% day, with the pattern repeated until some global crisis changes the mood. But with quantitative easing being the buzz word, it is going to have to be some pretty serious stuff to topple this rally

[#2]

Posts like this tells me that we are coming to a correction

[#3]

wow, 110 on the DOW futures what a pretty site for a couple seconds...

[#4]

over 110... and here we go again...

[#5]

i think u are wrong.A sell-off can start very quick and acumulate.On dow futures 11000 wave a would be eqaul to c.Watch out for this level.

[asylum]

no worries trade the price with a stop, up or down its all good.

[#7]

I agree Skaap. That is presicely where I am at.

[koos2]

Anybody got a website with correlation of JSE to Dow or S&P? I ask because over 50% of S&P profits are generated outside USA, and with their $ deprecation, they must also score on a currency conversion for company profits - so their profits will be higher? When profits come out higher their index moves up and we follow. Correct my thinking on this please.

[divz]

10980 is/was big resistance so could turn into support depending what happens today next level up is 11150 and back to post crisis highs of 11260 which was also the 61.8% retracement on the fall... so we are at some fairly critical levels at the mo. IMO 11260 will be tested in the next few days/weeks

[doomsdayza]

Certainly when you have a position with a profit. Anytime the market goes up a reasonable amount - say a strong day's work - after you've put on a position, it's probably worth adding to that position. I wouldn't want to wait for a retracement. That is everyone's favorite technique - to buy something strong that retraces. I don't see any justification in the statistics for that. When beans are at $8.00 and go to $9.00, if the choice is to buy them at $9.00 or buy them if they retrace to $8.80, I'd rather buy them at $9.00. They may never retrace to $8.80. Statistics would show that you make more money buying them and not waiting for a retracement. Richard Dennis

[SimonPB]

don't have a website, but when I last ran the numbers for a few decades it was very very weak .. R2 came out at around 0.1 if I recall ..

[koos2]

Thanks Simon, What I don't understand is why we are following the Americans if our markets are not closely correlated. I understand that their stocks are higher because the $ depreciated (basket) and they are expecting currency fueled earnings growth, what I don't understand is that we are following them with a stronger rand( no new news so our index should stay the same) unless ZAR basket is also depreciating at the same pace. The logic escapes me. Our assets are already more expensive in dollar terms because the dollar weakened. Trade that price - long till you are wrong?

[#13]

Now look what you gone and done Skaap!

[#14]

This is all Skaap's fault ;p I warned you after his post lol. oh well haha

[#15]

Snap- shall we start buying the beans or will they get cheaper?

[Rams]

Beans on sale for $5 now!

[#17]

Damn dudes, you guys going to panick over a 0.35% drop on the Alsi? Anyone stop to think that the dow might just be closing its gap?

[#18]

Too late Skaap. You cursed it. And do we have any beans left???

[doomsdayza]

get my e-mail 5?

[#20]

Yes, thanks D. Need to investigate further before I can respond. Hope to recipricate.