Well have you read the analysts reports and OST 's "collected views" - Its clear this is not an overnight recovery - look at the sector?? - its on life support. Fixing the roof in the rain is what is happening now. A loss happens to us all - knowing why it has happened helps aid in the decision making. HOPE on the other hand is not an investment strategy I have heard said.
interesting comment made by Piet Viljoen - an good company vs a good investment. They are buying Aspen because it is a good investment, he doesn't think it is a good business. Low price to book value - so it is a NAV play. There is an investment strategy called Piotroski (after a Harvard professor's thesis). It advocates buying low book to market stocks - under certain criteria - Powerstocks replicated the study in SA, and it was the biggest winner by far (although that might have been an anomaly, not sure if it has been replicated).