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Online Share Trading

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Diversified currency income.

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Super Contributor
Here's hoping that BATS break out of a three year consolidation in the UK... on the back of her currency-diversified income stream
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26 REPLIES 26
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Super Contributor
SA chart looks terrible. Heavily overbought with some serious negative divergence on the RSI. Daily and weekly. This share is going to R700 I think.
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Super Contributor
The price is made on the UK though so... Anyway - it is too uncertain a call to trade on - I am just searching for a bit of hope for my REINET position.
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Super Contributor
Have a look at some of these beaten down shares - M&R Holdings, Invicta. I know you're good with fundamentals. Technically these look interesting. Low PE's, acceptable EY,DY but prospects are uncertain.
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Super Contributor
Have a look at some of these beaten down shares - M&R Holdings, Invicta. I know you're good with fundamentals. Technically these look interesting. Low PE's, acceptable EY,DY but prospects are uncertain.
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Super Contributor
I am worried about being drawn into SA Inc. shares just to have the Rand reverse on me. I like NPK - Low R17's seems a good level. She offers foreign investors the chance to get exposure to the African "growth" story and non local currency streams. She is also underpinned by a fairly "bear market" type revenue stream.
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Super Contributor
I am also worried that the market suddenly turns its focus to the effect of a "strengthening" (hah!) Rand on the income streams of these local companies - miners in particular. And to think I was busy punting miners only a couple of months ago!
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Super Contributor
I agree with Kwagga on BTI. I wanted to short it from 850.50 only to find there are no cfd's on it. I have entered a short in cfr instead. I think the industrials have got a big down leg coming, based on the monthly indicators.
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Super Contributor
I would be very careful of shorting this type of share in this environment. If you don't like it - just leave it alone. Incidentally - PHILP MORRIS - which had a practically identical setup - broke to the upside in the USA last night. So - here's hoping...
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Super Contributor
I think it will probably be caused by the rand strengthening quite considerably from here and the dual listed industrial stocks coming off quite heavily (rem, sab, dsy, cfr, npn, etc).
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Super Contributor
The anger with that is that the ZAR may refuse to play ball - we have our set of specific (and profound) risks quite apart from emerging market currency dynamics. However - BTI offers a currency basket hedge to UK investors as the UKP falls, so her constant currency adjusted income may become the focus and that may push her higher. All the while she is supported by her bear market nature. Too many variables here - so I would rather short something more obvious.
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Super Contributor
The danger with that is that the ZAR may refuse to play ball - we have our set of specific (and profound) risks quite apart from emerging market currency dynamics. However - BTI offers a currency basket hedge to UK investors as the UKP falls, so her constant currency adjusted income may become the focus and that may push her higher. All the while she is supported by her bear market nature. Too many variables here - so I would rather short something more obvious.
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Super Contributor
BATS is on 14,5x basic earnings per share on a constant currency basis (1 year adjustment only) and +4% div... I don't think it makes sense to be short this thing. That makes her about the cheapest large cigarette company out there.. I don't think it makes sense to try and short this thing. I Increased my REI holding by 5% at R30.
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Super Contributor
Some people around here are averse to learning from history, but: on 29/1/2016 (yes, a few weeks ago)the rand was for the first time since 31/12/2001 as oversold against the USD on the weekly and monthly sto and rsi as it was back then. These indicators have now rolled over and are heading south, just as they did after 31/1/2001 after that peak. History shows that the rand strengthened from R13.55 on 31/1/2001 to R5.63 to the dollar on 31/12/2004 (a space of 3 years to the day).Something similar happened between 31/10/2008 and 31/12/2010 when the rand strengthened from R11.47 to R6.61 (a space of just over 2 years). I'm just saying.
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Super Contributor
Technically yes - but... I would wait for the elections to clear before I backed the Rand. Just as importantly - we need to see what happens with our downgrade to junk status. The fundamentals trump the technicals for me. Again - there must be better things to short than BTI. Or maybe just go long SA banks or industrials instead (?)
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Super Contributor
Arguments aside - I agree that the Rand is looking good in the short term. BUT BTI is breaking out (as predicted.) I am looking at shorting a UK banks - Barclays perhaps(!?)
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Super Contributor
There you go:- Zuma and Gordhan are having a go at reach other over SARS and so goes the poor old Rand...
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Zumba could probably walk into parliament and pee on the constitution naked and it wouldn't make much of a difference at this stage IMO -we give the man's influence too much credit for our woe's in my opinion (don't get me wrong - he is a fool and is killing our country, but the ZAR - well that is a different matter entirely) http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY/charts?symb=DXY&countrycode=US&time=7&startdate=1%2F4...
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Super Contributor
The rand is s***** as it is a marker for our rotten economic model BUT it would continue to drift lower, with the occasional lurch, in the ordinary course of events. So I disagree. When this character opens his mouth - there is panic and the Rand tanks immediately. He does as he pleases and we are in denial - he is our first (quasi-so far) dictator - I just hope he actually vacates office when his term is up. When I read posts like Russ's that recommend going long the Rand from a technical perspective - all I can say is "why look for a bounce in a 25 year old bear market." After all - isn't it a cardinal rule of trading to trade with the trend? Bouts of strength in the Rand are buying opportunities for overseas assets or currencies. AND then I am the one instructed to learn from history... traders must have a great sense of humour!
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Super Contributor
The rand has broken out of a 16 year old triple top pattern with venom. To me the chart looks hideous. I have no interest in this currency - let it strengthen if it will/can - I'll look to accumulate assets in other currencies.
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