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Iron Ore Price

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Preston
Super Contributor
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Preston
Super Contributor
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Preston
Super Contributor
@simon, my opinion is irrelevant and will not influence the IDC decision. Stop using blinkers... see the big picture.
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Preston
Super Contributor
Okay, Simon Brown, now that I have sufficient time at my disposal, I am going to take your last comment, strip it apart and hopefully we can see the light at the end of this tunnel.
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Preston
Super Contributor
Step 1. Your comment " china is an exporter of steel, why are they importing our steel ? again my Q, which you haven't yet answered, who buys the steel? coz it is not china or local SA industry . so must be somebody else, but who ? preston, you're talking your book, totally expected, we all are .. but don't expect me to buy into it"
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Preston
Super Contributor
Step 2 Your comment " china is an exporter of steel" To be a exporter of steel , can we safely assume that China has a customer base that will this steel product. yes/no!!!
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Preston
Super Contributor
Step 2 Your comment " china is an exporter of steel" To be a exporter of steel , can we safely assume that China has a customer base that will BUY this steel product. yes/no!!!
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
no, we can assume they have more supply than demand .. which is exactly my point .. we can see this in the local mills that are either bust r struggling
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
I see the big picture, I just don't buy it .. you have seen this https://twitter.com/Richards_Karin/status/659050325018562560/photo/1

I don't think KIO will go bust, but it going to get very nasty long before it gets good again for KIO .. an yes it will get good again for KIO, but my view is that's years away and with cyclical co's timing is everything ..
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partridge
Super Contributor
This is a wonderful example of a circular argument..
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Preston
Super Contributor
@part, the only difference with this circular argument is that my money is backing my conviction.
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Not applicable
a classic circular argument - matched in veracity by the ridiculous MTN thread. Preston has been advocating buying KIO since it was trading at R150. So with an investment down more than 60% over 6 months - Preston is still advocating cost averaging. Different strokes for different strokes, I suppose.
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Preston
Super Contributor
@skaap, So what? I am KIO fan's. To believe otherwise is to believe that SA is going burst! As Wayne McCurry , illuded, this is a binary bet.
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Preston
Super Contributor
@skaap, MTN is a stupid company that employ STUPID personnels...I hope you get the message!!!
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Preston
Super Contributor
Here are some interesting stats for KIO. Information is taken from the interim report as at 30 June 2015. Comparison is 30 June 2015 vs 28 Oct 2015 (today)
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Preston
Super Contributor
1) Kio shares price at 30 June 2015 was R150 , Share price today is R63 , representing a decline of 58%
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Preston
Super Contributor
2) Iron ore prices quotes in KIO interim financial 30 June 2015 was $61 , quoted iron ore price today is $50.60, representing a decrease of 17%
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Preston
Super Contributor
3) Rand was quoted R12.57 as at 30 June 2015, Rand is now trading at R13.60 representing a decline of 8%
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Preston
Super Contributor
So let do the maths, and you do need a MBA degree to do this, undergrad degree will suffice or even matric maths will suffice. Iron prices has fallen 17%, which is offset by a depreciating rand of 8%, yet the share price has fallen 58% to date. This is further compounded by the fact that 85% of the issued shares are held by Anglo American, IDC and another shareholder.
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kwagga
Super Contributor
Must admit Preston, averaging down on a clear loser is not a winning strategy. You can adore this share all you like, it's an Iron Ore $ price taker. You're paying labola for the girl, but instead you're getting the ugly mother in law.
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