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MTN - taking on water

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Not applicable
Fundamentally? MTN is poked. $5.2bn equates to R68bn. Nigeria is the group's largest EBITDA contributor by a factor of almost 3. And this fine has basically wiped out 2yrs worth of EBITDA. So MTN are going to have to capitalize this somehow, either by cutting dividends or raising capital. Probably the latter - so expect a rights issue, unless they can get this reduced somehow. And then there is the obvious question - if the guns are out against them, who else is going to fire a broadside?
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
I would expect this fine to be haggled down to maybe 10% of the original, this a broadside fired at the co .. an opening proposal if you will .. if they have to pay the full amount they in very serious trouble, forget cutting dividend they'll need rights issue
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Preston
Super Contributor
@simon, please quantify how by releasing sens at the opening of the market or 7hr later would affect the current share price. A selloff is a selloff. The impact is the same either way.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
it would have made zero difference .. the question is why wait till 2.30pm to issue SENS ?? that's my issue .. SENS is 100% for price sensitive info, yet MTN decide to have tea first ?!
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Preston
Super Contributor
Because it make Zero difference. Impact is the same either way. So rather enjoy a cup of tea first.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
nope, I want outstanding management of companies I own .. it that simple .. and this applies to listed JSE co's and unlisted co's I may have a stake in .. ponder this for a moment .. if you have a private co you owned, would you put second rate management in place to run it ??
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Rams
Super Contributor
a good company with poor management, is a bargain at the right price...150 is a start and 120 is the bargain price: at that price i can change management. And yesterday, you could not possibly have been long...
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Preston
Super Contributor
Yes, I was. Bought 40000 MTNSBM at 27c
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Preston
Super Contributor
Yes, I was. Bought 40000 MTNSBM at 27c
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Preston
Super Contributor
Yes, I was. Bought 40000 MTNSBM at 27c
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Preston
Super Contributor
@simon, my definition of a second grade management is someone who does not have a strategic vision to grow revenue by effectively utilising the asset at its disposal and thus not create shareholders wealth 2) time of release of sens announcement has no i
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
so we have different views .. I have no problem with that
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Rams
Super Contributor
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Russ
Super Contributor
If you bought three times you could just say you bought 120000.
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Prestonmyhusban
Regular Contributor
@Russ, then it will mean that I need to visualize 3 Johnnie Walker Black Whiskey bottles instead of one.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
it actually does make a difference as the person ho emailed me last night pointed out .. they bought MTN shares at some 4% down on Monday morning after checking SENS and not finding anything of note .. except there was very important news that many in the market did have, but not all due to lack of SENS ..
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Preston
Super Contributor
@simon , I guess he was trying to time the market.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
maybe, but that irrelevant .. he got shafted by MTN management which is all my point is
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Preston
Super Contributor
@ Simon. No he got shafted because he believe 4% is maximum amount that the market will punished MTN. Question remains , So why did go long when he could have bought a put option (short) on discovery of the news.
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indium
Contributor
Reputation and trust take a long time to build. Management have a credibility issue as no CEO coming forward, discussing status and showing leadership. What is really bad is that regulatory penalties are totally preventable and your regulator is possibly your most important stakeholder as he gives license to operate. I am a very unhappy shareholder and hopefully shareholders force board changes ASAP - well done Simon as I agree with your statement on quality which is now lacking in MTN.
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