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MTN - taking on water

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Preston
Super Contributor
Concluding remark. Simon Brown once did an excellent presentation on "Closing Auction" and how the EOD price is finally settled by virtue of demand and supply. To Simon, If MTN released the SENS announcement at 7am or 3pm, would that have influence the closing auction mechanism?
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CHATTYCHAT
Super Contributor
From Moneyweb: In South Africa, (MTN) is facing a potential probe by the JSE over the timing of its disclosure to shareholders of the Nigerian fine. The JSE is engaged in “focused conversation” with Deutsche Securities, MTN’s sponsor, in the interests of the operator’s shareholders, GM for issuer regulation Andre Visser said on Tuesday. Despite news of the fine being in the market in the early hours of Monday morning, MTN failed to notify shareholders about it until 2.24pm. ... MTN’s share price has taken a beating over the NCC fine. It collapsed by 12,5% on Monday, wiping R44bn of its market capitalisation. Shortly before 3pm on Tuesday, the counter had shed another 4,8%. Nigeria is MTN’s biggest and most profitable market. At the end of September, the operation there had 62,5m subscribers. — (c) 2015 NewsCentral Media
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Preston
Super Contributor
Thank you. Instead of attacking a person, you have brought something meaningful to the table. The JSE decision will validate any wrongdoing or lack thereof.. Let wait and see.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
no it would not have changed closing auction BUT it would have changed the open auction if released at 7am .. you surely agree with that or are you going to find a way to argue that as well ??
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
you don't actually understand what you talking about with that comment ..
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Preston
Super Contributor
@simon Brown, yes , for short term traders, Mtn price would have gapped down at the opening, those who are long would have been squeezed out of the positions. Existing shareholder,who has no intention to sell, there is no impact at all as Closing auc
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
so actually we agree .. that took an age
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Preston
Super Contributor
yes, because i was focused on the impact on long term shareholders, whilst you were focused on the short term traders.
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sponono
Super Contributor
I was looking for that article on "ABIL's embattled trader" but it seems FinWeek might have archived it.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
err, no I am not .. my point is 100% about long-term .. but couldn't be bothered no more so let's move on ..
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Preston
Super Contributor
@simon, okay Simon, let move on, i will respect the divergence of views. i am confident that the JSE will clear MTN of any wrongdoer...Let see..??
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Rams
Super Contributor
so , MTN almost there at 150, but 120 is boots and all. I will even sell Prestons KIO and ACL to buy MTN.
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Preston
Super Contributor
Shorts on MTN is officially closed using warrants. Delta is becoming too large.. Nice profit from a sad situation.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
based on what is your valuation R120a nd R150 ?
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Rams
Super Contributor
i wouln not say "sad" is the appropriate word; a Nigerian politicians son gets kidnapped, and MTN cannot provide the identity of the person asking for the ransom becuase the SIM is unregistered(Moneyweb). It is an issue that can be solved, even if it requires a change in management....at the right price, its a "happy" situation....
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Preston
Super Contributor
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Rams
Super Contributor
it read of my self made chart like the one you use, have to crunch numbers again but last time i checked; at a PE of 10, it would be cheap, so with current earnings, price range would be around 120-150. There is also a variable in there that would make it a "Value" in MY portfolio based on my current "cost".
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Preston
Super Contributor
@Ram and Simon, I would have to agree with Kwagga, R146, is a point of major support.
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Rams
Super Contributor
we at support now...major support is in the upper 120s
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
three day rule entry on MTN triggering, stop at lows from today .. I not trading it as who knows if management maybe have another trillion dollar fine they keeping silent on .. it makes for heightened risk, three day trade rule wants all news in market, we have hardly any
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