Prancing Horse - Move up - I just climbed into your boat

[THRESHOLD]

I took a batch of BGA yesterday at around R128. The premise is that the washout on the fear of an overhang will resolve itself into take-over speculation. This must the be only large bank on sale in the world that returns 17% (ROE.) So - while I admit that I have already traded the position for a couple of Rand (the beauty of big liquid counters) - I intend to hang onto 20k of these for a while as a partial solution to my need for some Rand recovery exposure.

[#2]

So you feel there will be a continued rand recovery? My concern is the internal battle going on between finance minister, Guptas & the possible risk of a continued push back from Zuma to out Pravin Gordhan. Can only imagine what would happen to the rand should SA dispose of another finance minister. I feel that I should be acquiring a rand hedge while there is a pull back.

[THRESHOLD]

I feel no such thing! Hence "some Rand recovery exposure." The charts say so... in the short term. The country is a circus. I have no confidence in the Rand going forward. I just want a little local exposure so I can benefit from a bit of Rand strength if it does materialise - but I want a hedge in the form of an underlying story to support the price of the share since I have no faith in the Rand longer term. It's just a trade.

[#4]

That makes sense, probably took it more as a long term view, but as a trade, looks like will work out well. Would have liked to get in at 128 :-)

[prancing_horse]

Was looking at them yesterday, had second thoughts due to my exposure to this sector, holding NED,FSR,OML & SLM on CFDs. Stocked up on NED & FSR long term when they hit what I thought was rock bottom and getting it spot-on for a change. Did offload some NED a while ago when they went over 190, may get rid of another third today, was hoping for a better dividend though.

[THRESHOLD]

Now that I have you - I brought up AVENG in the R2's a while ago. I was beaten down by a slew of anti-dissidents. But like a good rash - I'm back... This company is divesting and reconfiguring as an Australian company. Her Oz assets must be moving toward R16 a share at this point. I have taken a fair swig far but I am thinking of adding more ... Have you ever looked at her Ozzie operations?

[prancing_horse]

No I haven't. My son-in-law, pretty senior in SSK was ex Aveng, maybe should pick his brains see what he knows.

[THRESHOLD]

Certainly worth a look!

[prancing_horse]

In Jan, ZAR/US$ KFC index 48%, Big Mac 57%, RMB Milk 21%, undervalued. So short term should see a 10-15% ZAR recovery, long term..the slippery slide continues