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While noting that the Saudi-Arabian king has passed...

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CHATTYCHAT
Super Contributor
...what should one expect from Sasol? IMO a good balance has been attained between the former rise in share price (resulting from ZAR/USD exchange rate) and now much lower crude oil price to arrive at the levels at which SOL trades at present. If the S-A promise to flood the market with crude oil is still a threat to the industry the concept that the share should stabilise and present good investor value: fair growth and decent div yield, just became false?
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18 REPLIES 18
Not applicable
the price of Oil is much more defined by the demand side of oil, rather than the supply. If you think stimulus from the ECB is going to lift Europe, Japan and China out of a low growth scenario then its time to buy as the price of Oil will just fly up, historically this has never happened before but these are unique times as weve never really seen the complete affects of what the central bankers are doing atm...just my 2cents
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J12
Frequent Contributor
I think the media sometimes sensationalises articles. At the moment, everyone is looking for direction on the price of oil and it seems like making an arbitrary connection (imo) between the Saudi king and oil seems a bit too far stretched, but it gets readers. I know there have recently been some comments from the Iraqi oil minister that "oil has reached it's low" and he doesn't see it going much lower as well as the report from IEA about the end of oil price drops, but there's still excess supply even with China buying up record amounts (from Russia). I also think OPEC must be pretty pee'd off about the fact that they're still losing market share. Traditionally, the price of oil has been controlled by OPEC supply (not demand) and it seems like they're unwilling to be the balancing factor in determining price anymore. So, there's still market share war going on which suits the US just fine with all the QE they've done, this should dampen the consequent inflationary effects. Personally, I think there's still room for oil price drops, perhaps to the thirty something dollar per barrel level. It's not unprecedented. There have been oil price shocks in the past (1980's I think), just not with the same situation wrt QE. Again, since the US is dependent on oil, their economy should get on well with a low oil price and the dollar should get a lot stronger relative to the Euro. Just my speculation though.
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koos2
Super Contributor
Ha! some more gut news, buy buy buy!
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J12
Frequent Contributor
It would be nice if South Africa could build up some oil stockpiles with the low price. Good long term buy. Probably not good in the short term (up to 1 year?).
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samoa
Super Contributor
Keep your cool.There is enough for all of us!
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Rams
Super Contributor
OPEC chief says oil will hit $200...
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koos2
Super Contributor
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Rams
Super Contributor
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Rams
Super Contributor
but there may have been some mention of a 2 year time frame by some other person,was enuf for him to say we possibly at bottom, so will be looking to go long oil shares.
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koos2
Super Contributor
Clarence down at the s*****yard says the same, but i trust him more.
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Rams
Super Contributor
my money is on the OPEC chief. 2 year time frame or longer(if you well capitilised). Sol back to 700, "MTN" up to 300 and BIL up to 400.I did a risk analysis on these comapanies, i would be looking to buy them in one or many portfolios and pretend to be playing more golf while others work for me! Thats me, what Clarence does to you is your business.
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Vypir
Contributor
If you could check that crystal ball(s) of yours - I think you'll also see Telkom running up to about R90 by December, EOH bringing a R140 in for Christmas and Steinhoff Jumping to a nice round R100... I wish :-). On a more serious note: I started buying Sasol when they came down past R480 and I cried a lot on the way down. I had to spend an obscene amount to dilute the holdings to a value of about R408/share... (including buying in at R363 - my best decision ever). At least I have now managed to almost make a bit of money... May the Oil gods look favourably on all of us :-)
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CHATTYCHAT
Super Contributor
Thanks, all. Split opinion and some mockery, eh? Consensus opinion is BUY at the right price, which is close to R400 or less. Might also still provide a cool DivYield if SOL comes up with some smart cost containment.
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cheapcheap
Regular Contributor
From what I can gather from market commentators, they are expecting oil to drop even further...when looking at the historic price of oil and the gloomy global outlook. lets see if they come up with a good enough plan to reduce costs etc. but just be careful with the oil price...I read an article on Bloomberg the other day, saying that hedge funds are betting on a much bigger fall and puts have increased a lot.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
are these the same hedge funds who didn't predict the fall from $100 ?!
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cheapcheap
Regular Contributor
lol...I won't be surprised hey....watching cnbc at the mo and a chick there just said she feels oil has reached a level and she thinks an average of $55 for the next year. Makes sense since under the current price almost no one makes money??...time will tell...where do you think oil's going?
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Russ
Super Contributor
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