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Online Share Trading

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AEG,GND

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Hali
Super Contributor
Just to come in here, I am neither a bull nor a bear.. I enter into long trades and short trades, I use a trading method using the highest probability coupled with fundamentals and abit of technical analysis.. My outrageous calls as some might see it is based on the following facts in respect of AGL - 1. I have documents the fundamental reasons why commodities are terminally ill.. 2. The technical analysis dropped below the 200 day moving average, please have a look at the long term graphs for whenever this happened in the past and you will see why I think we could be heading to test the 50 day moving average. 3. The probability trade - This share is up from 52 bucks to 134 a day or so ago that's double and some, that tells me that the probabilities are now stacked in the downside and the risk reward play is better short. 4. The sentiment was the only reason we had the rally and being oversold but that has since changed, and instead of being oversold we are now very overbought, so this is my analysis and I am sticking with it! :)
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Hali
Super Contributor
Just to come in here, I am neither a bull nor a bear.. I enter into long trades and short trades, I use a trading method using the highest probability coupled with fundamentals and abit of technical analysis.. My outrageous calls as some might see it is based on the following facts in respect of AGL - 1. I have documents the fundamental reasons why commodities are terminally ill.. 2. The technical analysis dropped below the 200 day moving average, please have a look at the long term graphs for whenever this happened in the past and you will see why I think we could be heading to test the 50 day moving average. 3. The probability trade - This share is up from 52 bucks to 134 a day or so ago that's double and some, that tells me that the probabilities are now stacked in the downside and the risk reward play is better short. 4. The sentiment was the only reason we had the rally and being oversold but that has since changed, and instead of being oversold we are now very overbought, so this is my analysis and I am sticking with it! :)
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
We aren't discussing you as a trader. Traders do what traders must! This is more about the view that shares are moving up on thin air. It really doesn't matter, though, they are moving up. Once again - I see no point in shorting something I wish to hold on the long side. I would rather simply clear the position and resume it once the shares have reached a certain level again.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Unfortunately lately - so many of these differences on this site seem to degenerate into brawls. Nice to see that we have avoided that so far. The idea is that we each learn something from an exchange - about this thing called a market and perhaps, even, about each other. I have openly stated - often - that I don't rate myself as trader. That said - I have found that positions work better than pure technical trading - where the indicators always seem to fail at the most unfortunate times. AND believe me - I have used them all - and tracked correlation of predictability with various DMA periods and tried day trading and eventually... realised that it was all great fun but the risk mitigated the position sizes and made it all bit pointless. BUT - we are all different and I still play a bit for fun.
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Hali
Super Contributor
With shorting you also earn interest while you hold the position so if you out and made a bad call you can hold on a while and not pay to hold..
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Sure - but you get to pay over the dividend... and in the long run markets go up... so holding long term positions means that you need a really high conviction trade.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Sure - but you get to pay over the dividend... and in the long run markets go up... so holding long term positions means that you need a really high conviction trade.
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Hali
Super Contributor
In the mining companies the dividends will be non existant for the foreseeable future so that's not relevant?
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Sure - but they are also very low, so there is a danger that the pullbacks fail to complete their down counts. Not a "resource counter" - but look at GND by the way - the Baltic Dry seems to have bottomed. If this thing turns - after losing 95% of its value - their will probably be a sustained recovery. GND managed R560m profit and R1,4B cash in about as ghastly a market as they are ever likely to see. I see no point in trying to trade - just take a chunk of these and give them time. Buying and selling for a pullback etc. will probably leave you stranded at some pint - watching the stock disappear over the horizon. A trader would see "I don't care." I made a profit - now let's find the next setup. I have never managed to adopt that attitude. It think it requires a certain type of personality.
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Hali
Super Contributor
U right, whatever works, at the end of the day which ever method works you should do, to every trader his own technique.. I was also in auditing till a few years back, had bigger ideas when I started studying CA I must admit.
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Russ
Super Contributor
The rounded bottom of AEG has turned into a bum deal.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
We all did - then life happened.
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Russ
Super Contributor
Anyone seen the movie Whatever Works by Woody Allen-very funny!
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Rams
Super Contributor
And just remember , there is no academic qualification that will make you a susccessful trader...or investor.
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G_V_V
Super Contributor
It all starts when bears smell the honey, then they create all forms of ingenious contraptions to cause an valanche, small at first but gathering momentum as bears join in the party having no regard for the destruction of the tree in which the hive is located. That is the nature of a bear. Only when the stings are felt like a fiery bull advancing is when the bear will retreat. No wise bear will return to a hive if it was hurt from a previous attempt in raiding the hive. If you feel the hive is weak and can be raided then it's your own fault if you get slaughtered in the process by those who are genuinely putting all their effort in creating a sweet environment for all its members.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
Y. His best in a while.
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Hali
Super Contributor
Remember these targets guys
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Eurostar
Contributor
I couldn't sit on my hands any longer, great short!!
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Eurostar
Contributor
I couldn't sit on my hands any longer, great short!!
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Hali
Super Contributor
The question now arises, do we cut it now at 105 or wait for it to test support at 102? I see a head and shoulders forming on UK AAL graph -30 day..you views?
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