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ALSH

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Super Contributor
On 12 July this year I made quite a detailed posting under the heading "Risky stuff part 2" where I described how similar the charts were in 2007 when the big correction was starting to how they were when I posted on 12 July. Looking now at the charts of the alsh as well as the dow I would say that if the charts continue to follow the same pattern we are about 1/3 of the way through this correction in terms of both value and time. The 2007 correction lasted from Oct 2007 until March 2009, a period of about 17 months. Of course there were a couple of relief rallies/consolidations along the way so it was not all downhill. The indicators (rsi and sto) are oversold now on the daily and weekly charts but still have a long way to go on the monthly chart. We can therefore expect some rallies every now and then(like yesterday), which traders might make a quick buck from, but I wouldn't start investing at this point.I also wish to add that the alsh has broken its long term support line which goes back to that low of March 2009, so don't think this can't happen! Just my opinion.
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Super Contributor
Russ, By investing are you are talking long term investment?
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Super Contributor
Sorry, wrong about the break of support,I was looking at the support line starting Oct 2011. The one I mentioned comes in at about 46000. Yes Preston, I just mean that if this plays out then you can buy shares in a few months time much cheaper than they are now. I might be wrong so please make your own decisions.
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Super Contributor
The dow however is just below its long term support going back to March 2009.
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Super Contributor
thanks for this input which I think may be accurate-I tend to but on pe and div checks so I try to avoid being caught buying 'high'-there is certainly enough going on to catch my attention-been sitting on my hands so long now I have forgotten how to buy-got plenty cash reserves so hopefully be ready when the time comes
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Super Contributor
with all this risky stuff, the worse one could do with all this Analysis, is nothing. The best one could do if you in Paralysis, is take whatever cash you have, construct a portfolio of shares for a 10 year period, (my pick is BIL, APN, CML, DBXUS, STX40), work out what price you happy to buy, and when the Risky stuff happens, just buy. Keep on doing that every year the Risky stuff happens.
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