with BIL around 200, APN at 290, CML at 66, there you have 3 out of 5 shares to start accumulating in a good long term portfolio...yes FED rate hike still an issue but wont be an isue for all of the next 10 years.
price is nothing risk is everything. If these shares earnings could be assumed to grow ad infinitum at a set rate then you could pay what you like for them - but that is dream world stuff - it is no going to happen. But I AGREE that earnings wise there is a margin of safety in these cases that makes them start to look "hotter"
risk is absolute, because you know it exists. Reward is ones Bias. So one decides whether the almost certain Risk is worth the Reward. The Reward with APN at 460 was probably not worth the RISK(in retrospect)...but APN at 260-280 is a better RISK /REWARD....
While its true to say that risk is found in any situation - even in Us Treasury Bonds - as regards default this is deflecting from the central issue. The question remains - what are you buying ? answer : a stream of future earnings about which you have views - at the one end optimistic - and the converse at the other end. So the price you pay should ( if you are not "I am feeling lucky today" ) contain a margin of risk safety ( see you can put those two words together ) as regards expectations on future earnings. Ergo: price is not as important as risk. You can pay next to nothing for a share and its still risky - ditto the reverse.. you can pay a lot for a share where there is still a good margin of risk - an example would be Capitec going forward - or Naspers =10 cent.... But while Anglo is cheap and the earnings risk is there -- its in a volatile market where prices of commodity shares are basically being hammered so wait till the dust clears - and there is a reasonable case to argue that it will then still be cheap..for all the wrong reasons. Oops! - hang on I think its time to make another cup of real tea - and see what the leaves are saying.. or maybe they won't say anything at all?