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Online Share Trading

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Don't become too complacent

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kwagga
Super Contributor
ALSI up 3000 points or 6.5% in less than a month. ALSI up 10.7% since 1 Jan. In short, we're headed for some volatility or consolidation sometime in the near future. The trend is not sustainable. So before committing to any new buys, and that include TFSA, wait for a pullback in this market. It promises to be a biggie.
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20 REPLIES 20
SimonPB
Valued Contributor
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mullet_fish
Regular Contributor
....Roffe ? It is always a bit nerve-racking when there is a good run but timing markets is possibly where the highest risk is in any plan (unless a classic trader).
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kwagga
Super Contributor
A correction (don't read crash).
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mullet_fish
Regular Contributor
Biggie correction ?....but get the idea....at the moment even bad news seems to push up prices (except miserable resources)
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kwagga
Super Contributor
A proper correction, not that half baked one we got earlier this year. What I'm saying is wait for a move to say a 60 Day MA, and then buy into a index tracker for a TFSA or and other share for that matter. Smart money is not piling into the share market at the moment, and for good reason. It's the suckers too afraid they might loose out that running up the market at the moment. The current steep incline of the up trend is not sustainable.
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Rams
Super Contributor
the time to buy has long passed, i been buying when the top 40 was closer to 42000...took profits at 46000, taking profits now at 48000 and riding this to 50000 for final profit taking. Then lots of cash when next correction happens and time to buy. as for the TFSA, I agree, there will be a time when the correction happens.
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Rams
Super Contributor
how much...the retrace should go back to support around 47 000 ( 61% retrace (previous high, A wave correction with projections from high of 50000)...but its posssible TOPI couid trade past 50000, then 47000 would be a level to watch for buying during the next correction(daily charts, going back 1 year)
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kwagga
Super Contributor
Well, I have a target of 49100 on the ALSI contract right now.That's 350 points, 0.7% from here. Then we'll see what happens from there.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
smart money, lol .. does it do calculus without a calculator or DCF modeling the in the fly ?
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kwagga
Super Contributor
Maybe you should read Allan Gray's quarterly news letter Simon. Some pretty smart folks (read smart money) working there. They're not buying, they're mostly stocking up on cash on funds with SA Equity exposure. Now why would they be doing that ? Maybe you consider yourself smarter than the biggest funds manager in SA, but I don't. I pretty much accept the fact that I don't know more than them collectively. This market is expensive by any historical standard. That part is common knowledge. QE will end, and the market will normalize, but currently it's stretched. Just look at what is currently happening with the DAX. I'm not saying we're going to crash, just that a correction is looming. We're already past the ALSI's performance last year and that in 4 months.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
I don't disagree with anything you say, except for the smart money chirp which is at best silly .. that said I am not moving to cash and am still selectively buying (but than I am always selectively buying) .. as for Allan Grey, they don't impress me but that each to their own .. an yes they have made lots of money over time, so what .. that doesn't impress me either, Graeme Korner, Hleo Giose, others, now they impress me, but not AG ..
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kwagga
Super Contributor
Then you probably don't like the talking heads remark as well.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
nah, that doesn't bother me at all
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leoridge
Contributor
Would this biggie happen too quickly so as to prevent you changing positions if desired ?
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Rams
Super Contributor
emotions will prevent you from making a rational decision when it happens(or if it happens). So its better to let the market take you out(for trades, if investing then do nothing). The market can take you out at profit targets or at profit stops(i use both which has kept me in).
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Not applicable
well, I have sell signals all over the place. When the rally is being fueled by the dogs of the JSE (KIO???) and the profitable companies are starting to sell off (most of the industrial sector) - it flags an exit for me. I might be wrong, but even if I miss the rest of this rally, I will get the opportunity to buy back at my exit price in the near future. Or at least that is my rationale.
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leoridge
Contributor
Yes ,I get very emotional watching these rallies from the sidelines.
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ndabs
Frequent Contributor
noticed also....feels like I am being left out of the rally
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Rams
Super Contributor
50 000 this week on ALSI .?
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