personally I don't see the currency weakening anytime soon. Maybe if the US raises interest rates. But they are effectively (the US treasuries) in negative yield territory, so I don't think global demand for US$ is likely to be back on the table anytime soon. Personally, my view is that if you were a bond trader / investor, and you were staring at situations where you have to pay to invest in treasuries, suddenly junk status bonds don't look so bad anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing capital inflow into SA, and a rand strengthening to the 12 to the $ mark before the end of the year
On 13/4/16 when the usd-zar was 14.52 I posted this:"I reckon the rand will weaken short term to about 15.15 and then strengthen over time to about R11.00." I got it slightly wrong because the rand weakened all the way to 15.83 before resuming its strengthening trend. I followed this up on 14/4 with another post explaining why I made those predictions based on the similarities between the chart in January 2016 and the chart in 2001 and 2008 when the rand was massively oversold on the monthly charts, and proceeded to strengthen substantially over the next couple of years thereafter.I now think that short term the rand should strengthen quite substantially to maybe 14.50(I agree with Sponono on that) but the monthly indicators still have some way to go before getting oversold, so I think it will strengthen considerably after that(I agree with skaaptjop on that!).
I see that, Preston. I just like the fact that it's oversold on the daily chart, there is a buy divergence on the daily rsi and sto (which are starting to turn up)and it is just above lateral support. It seems a low risk trade.