Kio

[Mol]

What do you longterm investors think of kumba.Is it a buy at current levels

[mullet_fish]

How long is long term? The iron ore glut is set to be with us for many years

[mullet_fish]

A fun bet would be on when next Kumba will see R100, R200, R500 again - if ever?? Its cousin EXX has much the same sad story. Anglo going much the same way and in all probability BHP will follow. I hope I am very wrong and some major issue will turn this scenario around.

[Plonky]

In my opinion its going lower.... much lower still...wait !!!

[manere_fortis]

Wait for proper reversal. You would kick yourself for buying now if you could get it for R50 in three year's time. Not saying that it is going there, but its possible

[Preston]

Mol, I am a buyer of KIO. My objective is to take this share into my retirement. Second objective is to treat this share as an annuity. From R150, I have been nibbling on this share. Every time KIO breach a key significant level, I buy 100 units only. This way I am not timing the market but merely participating in it

[Mol]

Thanks for the input guys. I agree with you Preston

[Mol]

The reason I agree with Preston, its a great co. with good management redusing costs. Only iron ore price at the moment,but it will turn around.

[SimonPB]

but when will it turn ??
an longer term the boom bust story is what one can expect from KIO (and all cyclical) stocks .. makes them great for trading, but not long term bottom draw stocks

[Preston]

Simon, it will turn once the economic cycle turns. It my take 5yrs, 10yrs or even 15yrs. This is a long term play.

[SimonPB]

agreed, and than it will turn down and collapse again .. that's what cyclical stocks do .. and why have 'dead' money tied up for 5/10/15 years ?? there will be plenty time to buy these for the next ride up ..

[TAKR]

Simon PB, I would like to hear which companies you currently consider long term, bottom draw stocks. Why IÂ’m asking is, I may like to add some to my portfolio. That said I donÂ’t mind a bit of risk, but I steer clear of companies can be affected by unions and strikes.

[mullet_fish]

..many years ago people used to say "Anglo is my pension"..how can they go wrong....!

[Preston]

Indeed, the guys at Coronation Fund Mngrs will not be happy with that comment :-)

[SimonPB]

CFR, DSY, CPI, FBR, SHP, WHL (all of which I own). I also own others, but they're second tier and could be exited at any stage

[mullet_fish]

The old saying when times are tough with investing..."return of my money"..not "return on my money"is most important. Ok - I know this doesn't work either...but it will hopefully train people to cut their losses earlier. It would be interesting if there were stats on shares losing a huge amount (50-80%) - what statistical chance do they have of recovering? A brutal simple answer. (I can only think of Old Mutual recently).

[mullet_fish]

The other risk of hanging on too long is the company gets sold/broken up/taken over / de-listed...so you will most likely get screwed as you will not have the "time" to recover.

[AP]

I also see NO advantage in buying a stock that is on a downward trend. Wait for the turn or alternatively wait at least until fundamentals are starting to turn positive. Unless you are OK with throwing away money...

[geordie1]

one day in the future commodities will have their day-just not sure when that day will be.if you have a 15 to 20 year horizon then yes this is worth a small bet but accept it is speculative

[prancing_horse]

I'll be pushing up daisies by then, and at this rate KIO as well.