I understand that today is the LDT for the MTN dividend.. If I have a CFD long position on MTN, how will it work? Tomorrow will open ex dividend so technically be in a loss and when they pay on the 4th then will square off?
You can't expect a share that has given you a 5% div (6 months) not to take a big knock. I don't hold it in any form but if I were to have CFDs on this one I wouldn't panic as the dividend would cover the interest for the next 6 months at current levels.
Y; AND ministerial comment that the $250m dollar good faith payment is an insult (pretty much dispelling all hope of offsetting that against any settlement reached.) AND ministerial calls for the fine to be tripled in light of MTN's behaviour. My take on this is that as soon as (if) they get payment - Nigeria will attack MTN's licence and seek to transfer them to a state buddy. I suspect MTN, who must be acutely aware of this probability and is weighing up the actual capitalised value of her operations in Nigeria vs. the fine. Perhaps she could do a deal to sell the operations (discounted for the fine) to another operator that the state would deem more desirable and try to paint a "free-choice" face on the affair - in the hope of preserving her share value. I know this borders on conspiracy theory - BUT this is AFRICA, worse still, NIGERIA. And I am drawing from the standard playbook. Why on earth would anybody want to trade this thing (let alone be invested it?)
1) MTN could take this issue BACK to court (after dropping the case in good faith) and drag this out for many years. 2) Nigeria is destroying its reputation of attracting Foreign Direct Investment. 3) I always see the predators M1 Limited is acquiring shares (1%) in MTN in time of weakness. Only positive is that MTN is earning revenues from Nigeria whilst this saga plays out. MTN is reaping the economic benefit.
You've caught me with my cynical cap on. Reputation never worried her in the Delta or with Tiger Brands etc. MTN cannot get her money out of Nigeria without central bank approval due to the currency peg. I direct your attention to TBS, Foshini et al who are decamping. As a parting riposte... just look at the rest of Africa (South Africa included)... worried about reputation... not so much. Wait - just now you will here that they have awarded the MTN licences to Dangote!