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Online Share Trading

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Rate hike

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Russ
Super Contributor
Seeing how the rand has strengthened I presume no rate hike by the fed has been priced in. If they do raise tomorrow I suppose it will be a big shock to our market, a bit like brexit when everyone expected a no vote.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
At this point... I have given up. Just looking at the long term prognosis and hoping to at least get that right.
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Russ
Super Contributor
We must be the only market that's in the red today, and we are deep in it.
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Russ
Super Contributor
I think the rate decision is tonight, not tomorrow.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
The way the ZAR is running - it could get worse. Even the SA Inc. shares are being sold down - perhaps in anticipation of a support level breaking ... those damned traders again. Then again - a strong Rand is going to hurt the economy which has been girding its loins for protracted Rand weakness - so perhaps they are right. Only my long forgotten small caps are waking up - which is crazy in a risk off market like this!!
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Not applicable
yep - its all topsy-turvy. Anyone who is rand hedged is feeling the pain right now, and since this is the bulk of SA-INC these days, looks like everyone made the wrong bets - eish. So now, what is the play? Resources are the only game in town, it would seem - given the strong inverse correlation to the dollar. The bulk of the top40 is rand hedged these days, or they are still suffering from the looming downgrade threat. The only other possibility I guess would be diversified industrials - Bidvest maybe, and some construction stocks, and a couple of the local listed properties (stay away from the ones that tried to hedge - like Resilient
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Russ
Super Contributor
I wouldn't go selling the rand hedges now. They are quite oversold and could be due for a rally.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
No. I will trim perhaps - on a bounce - but no way am I going all in on the ZAR. Too much risk. Just have to stomach the short term volatility and accept that they are an insurance policy.
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
SKAAP - Metal Miners although they are going to find a resurgent Rand a huge headwind. African consumer growth stories - CLI, NPK... Multiple currency stream managers focussed on the wealthy (INVESTEC.) African property exposed to African growth with USD income stream (MDP, TDH) Eastern European exposure, Private Equity (MSP,ARA, REI {I wish they would dump BTI}) Food exporters (ZED) PLATINUM for a supply deficit.(LONMIN, IMP, ETF) Silver for creeping inflation (ETF) I think this is a rolling bear market and has been for two years or so - it's a stock pickers environment. Small Industrial groups exporting their model or their products(ART,WNH...) Any others??
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THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
And a smattering of find exposure into Africa (MMI, LBH)
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