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Online Share Trading

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Time-in the markets or timing?

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Not applicable
The flaw in the argument when it comes to Time in the markets

"We keep on hearing "Time" is the big secret to the markets, through famous sayings like "its not about timing the markets but TIME-IN the markets". Maybe its time to question the truth of this and why its said in the first place."

http://www.myshares.co.za/basic/blogs_view.php?p=10
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16 REPLIES 16
Blik
Super Contributor
My best performing shares in my portfolio, are those that I bought first up. I didn't know much about analysis, but bought what seemed like decent stocks. Those bought more recently, albeit with "better" analysis, are lagging %-growth-wise, even when normalised. My original dart chucking was clearly lucky!
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Not applicable
I had the same luck, (emphasis on the word luck).
Turns out stimulus definitely helps skew the tail.
I find very few people can acknowledge this as everyone wants to believe everything they did was skill.

You might find this article interesting to read as well:
Anyone who finds investing easy is stupid - The only way to earn superior returns in the market is by thinking differently. http://www.moneyweb.co.za/investing/anyone-who-finds-investing-easy-is-stupid/
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Quakedog
Super Contributor
Bought Pioneer at R28 and sold at R40 then bought it back at R60 and then sold at R80. Never sell! EVER! Time is your Friend!
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Mol
Frequent Contributor
What! I bought oml at 4.80 and sell at 6.50 that's stupid!
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prancing_horse
Super Contributor
I'm sure that at some stage we've all bought lemons and sold stars, that's par for the course in this game.
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J12
Frequent Contributor
I bought woolies at R9.50 and sold at R21. Facepalm!
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
it the difference between trading and investing and what we most often do wrong is we buy awesome stocks at great prices and then trade them instead of just holding, forever
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Not applicable
just like Billiton has been a great performer? that was the "great stock pick" of 2004-2007 and Anglo.
And Enron, and so many others.
Most people know only when to buy and know nothing about when to sell so they keep advocating "never sell".

Everyone keeps talking about how Buffet does a "buy-and-hold" forever but even Buffet often makes sale...he just hopes he never has to sell even he knows when to get out.
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Not applicable
In my opinion, it comes down to a complete strategy.
Investing, trading...all of it.
Do you know when to buy, do you know when to sell in a loss, do you know when to sell in a profit?

Any strategy (investing or technical) that cannot answer that question is an incomplete strategy.
So "buy-and-hold" is incomplete in my eyes.

Buffet has sold shares with losses, shares with profit.
Successful mechanical traders, fundamental traders, all of them are easily able to answer these questions.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
BC, nope .. a cyclical company cannot by definition be a awesome company in my books .. I am talking WHL, FBR, SHP, CFR, DSY, CPI an others
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Not applicable
I agree with that point, however many others might disagree.
But my question is more what happens if the indi goes through a bear market?
What if CFR albeit a great company goes through a prolonged sideways move (eg) because the EURCHF causes low earnings.
Your arguement is hold it no matter what, even if it goes through a 20 year sideways market, or worse just down.
Just look at the Japanese that are STILL in a 26 year bear market.
My point is that no strategy picks tops and bottoms (well there are a few), but those who have all the rules before the enter (when to enter, when to exit) are a lot more successful than people who buy and hold.

I dont quite understand why you do punt this so hard,
if a trader told you he is long on the ALSI and it keeps going down - would you really still tell him to keep holding?

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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
trader different, obey your stops end of story ..
a stock going through a 20 year sideways/bear market is not an awesome stock .. important, what is awesome today may not always be, PIK is a case in point ..
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Not applicable
As a trader and an investor, I can tell you that I am more profitable trading - but only thanks to leverage. I can also tell you that once you have sorted out your money management principles, when to buy a stock is irrelevant. The truly hard part of trading is when to take profit. And one thing is absolutely certain - you have to take profit. It is the absolute fundamental nature of trading. I have 2 basic principles in taking profit 1) Take profit before the pullback (i.e. no trailing stops) and 2) absolutely no point exiting a position at a level you would otherwise buy at if you weren't in the trade.
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SimonPB
Valued Contributor
100% agree ==>>> The truly hard part of trading is when to take profit
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ACEP_
Regular Contributor
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Not applicable
Guess you wouldve told Buffet not to buy Coca-Cola in 1970...went through a 13 year bear market.

http://imgur.com/ePAnvn8
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