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Online Share Trading

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When to buy in this market

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jo_soap
Contributor
Hello all I have been very absent from these forums for quite a while. I have quite a bit of cash sitting waiting to be invested. When do you think is a good time to bit the bullet? My thinking is to wait until I see the market starting to turn and come back up again.
24 REPLIES 24
Creature_of_the
Super Contributor
Ok Let us know when that happens ..Thanx in advance...
Russ
Super Contributor
I spent some time looking at charts yesterday. There is not one market in the world that I would invest in right now. Most of them look quite perilous. Keep your money in cash for the next year or two or look for shorts. Just my opinion.
jo_soap
Contributor
That's Russ. That is rather depressing.
jo_soap
Contributor
That's Russ. That is rather depressing.
jo_soap
Contributor
That's Russ. That is rather depressing.
koos2
Super Contributor
It puts the lotion in the basket or else it gets the hose again. Just dont, he might just wear you as part of a coat.
jo_soap
Contributor
Hi Koos. Sorry....Am I missing the inside joke?
geordie1
Super Contributor
at moment I prefer cash until I recognise a significant market correction and then I will come back to the market and reinvest-if you must invest look at overseas property as rand looks like it will be weak for the foreseeable future-if u like gambling commodites is a white knuckle ride that will come back one day but not in the short term imo
Preston
Super Contributor
koos2
Super Contributor
haha. no was a silence of the lambs reference.. but a wise man once said nothing. ( he only bought or sold )
THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
koos2
Super Contributor
Yes why, is sub-prime aint it?
Preston
Super Contributor
1) Oversold 2) PE ratio is reasonable 3) growth of 10% for banks is not unreasonable 4) Assumption. SA could possible starve off "Junk status", this means that Pravin G, needs to present a budget which include hiking personal taxes and other interventions to bridge or close the fiscal gap and create some confidence in SA 5) The rand is seriously oversold, The systematic risk is being increased by China. 6) Good Div Yield. 7) Index has two shares that has earnings in foreign currency, ie Investec PLc and Discovery. 8) SA financial institutional are well capitalized and highly respected by international peers. omo.I am taking a 5 year view and buying at the dips,
Preston
Super Contributor
1) Oversold 2) PE ratio is reasonable 3) growth of 10% for banks is not unreasonable 4) Assumption. SA could possible starve off "Junk status", this means that Pravin G, needs to present a budget which include hiking personal taxes and other interventions to bridge or close the fiscal gap and create some confidence in SA 5) The rand is seriously oversold, The systematic risk is being increased by China. 6) Good Div Yield. 7) Index has two shares that has earnings in foreign currency, ie Investec PLc and Discovery. 8) SA financial institutional are well capitalized and highly respected by international peers. omo.I am taking a 5 year view and buying at the dips,
THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
I intend to build a short position on bounces. The Rand... They are going to suffer some shocking bad debts, don't you think?
Preston
Super Contributor
Remember the endowment effect/benefit of the rate increase, is absorbed almost immediately by the banks, whilst impairments has a lagging effect of 6 months. As far as building a short position, well objectively you are not countertrading, you are actually trading with the trend, so there is nothing wrong with that strategy. **** Remember I am a 5 years view.
Preston
Super Contributor
Remember the endowment effect/benefit of the rate increase, is absorbed almost immediately by the banks, whilst impairments has a lagging effect of 6 months. As far as building a short position, well objectively you are not countertrading, you are actually trading with the trend, so there is nothing wrong with that strategy. **** Remember I am taking a 5 years view.
THRESHOLD
Super Contributor
We haven't seen the substantial impairments yet though. They are already due and the interest rate hikes will only serve to make matters worse.The market will begin to anticipate them using the employment data and household affordability metrics as forward indicators. Personally - I think we are way past price to book and PE ratios - the fundamentals are all that matters in SA at this point. BUT - I am a pretty lousy trader... so I'll just keep building my short positions and leave the in and out stuff to you. I'd probably be better off just buying non SA assets - but one needs a little excitement!
Preston
Super Contributor
I agree with you,things are not looking good for SA, ****In 2013, I I bought a few krugercoins for my daughter with average price of R14000 (I stand corrected on this). I took physically delivery of these coins and completely forgotten about it. Today those coins are valued at R19000 each.*** I love building my portfolio in negative time , where intrinsic value is not stretched and shares prices are closer to their mean.