You'll need 58% and 25% growth respectively to reach break even. Possible but unlikely in 12months time. Question should be:Can that money do better in the meantime elsewhere? I believe:Yes. Where? I'll be tempted to setup a ambush for SOL.(Ambush= be ready and wait for "right" moment.) I would atleast sell some. OMO + 2 cups of concentrated gutfeel.
I dont think anyone can accurately predict a timeframe, oil tanked from 110 USD o current levels in less than 6 months. My reasoning for holding is simple if he sells he locks in the loss and to sell now will be silly at its sitting at 12 month lows, wait for a bounce, wait how long? I am not sure.
time value of money is the key. You have already lost - deal with it. You cannot have a mindset whereby you look to recoup your losses. Will you sell if you hit R300 again? Your mindset has to be where can I realistically get the best gains with what I have left. Now, as to where the best sector is, that is a separate story all together. It is definitely not Kumba. Anglo might have some legs - it is a diversified miner, and I am getting bullish on Platinum (for trading, not investing - I never invest in resources). One trick regarding resources - if the industry swings positive - the company that stands the most to gain is most likely Grindrod. They handle almost all the bulk ore shipments - so I would view Grindrod as a far less risky option for capitalising in the eventual swing in commodities - (and you might get some short term gain on the rest of their investments too).
I would keep the shares. 1. -I would not average down anymore. 2- I would look for an opportunity to get into shares like APN, NPN, CPI..etc. All in the same portfolio of about 5 shares...3-When the portfolio starts to show some positivity or KIO comes up, i would sell KIO. Your portfoio should be balanced enough to give you "average equal" exposure(20%) to different sectors. I had BIL and SOL some time ago, and sold SOL becos BIL had OIL..
I agree with Simon, Skaaptjop, Samoa, etc. I think the wait can still be long. Rather sell and put the money in shares that are actually growing. When resources actually start to turn, then you can sell again and put your money in them (if you want). I also had Anglo, sold at a loss and made-up my loss within a couple of months (with other shares). Another tip: compare RS (relative strength of Anglo versus medi clinic, nepi, aspen, coronation, etc. and make a decision
Ask yourself if you would commit fresh money to AGL & KIO now ? I agree with buying 5 or more holdings as that diversifies you. AGL is now relatively cheap and could be a good pick if you kept it as one 5 stocks, it should also have a good dividend underpin. My picks would be MTN, BIL