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crazy volatility

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Not applicable
In all my years of trading, I have never seen markets this volatile - even 2008, when MTN could swing 20% one way and 20% the other in a day, still had direction (all down). But this, this is wild crazy stuff.
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Super Contributor
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Super Contributor
What are the members views on MTN btw? I am long on MTN from 164..Can we expect it to go back to the 200 mark or is it going back down?
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Super Contributor
I love Volatility, especially if you get it right...it can be very rewarding.
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Super Contributor
I don't think anyone can answer that question. A close below 156 I would be a seller, but a bounce up to 200 is not out of the question either. The risk:reward however is acceptable to the upside.
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Super Contributor
MTN valuation is below R150. Poor results. Oil price. Market volatility , it will get there. I am " all in" in the 120s
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Valued Contributor
skaap, I not sure this is worse then 2008? VIX says not, trying to find the SAVI numbers to confirm, seems it may have disappeared

MTN, if you a long-term investor in MTN and you still like the investor theme, ignore all the volatility and noise. (applies to any non cyclical stock)
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Super Contributor
but as with APN, market will sell off like 2008 to get to these values.
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Super Contributor
The dow and sp500 have both broken support that goes back about 5 and 3 years respectively. A few days ago they managed to retrace and give those support lines a good bye kiss and have since fallen back again. I don't know when but I reckon their next big move will be down (and we will follow).
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Super Contributor
the Fed rate hike could be trigger..
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Super Contributor
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Super Contributor
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Super Contributor
Is it not already priced in?
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Super Contributor
it would drag the indices down to levels Russ talks about, and that would likely be where the bottom is
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Super Contributor
US job numbers today that may point the way forward...my guess is that the numbers are good, then the next guess is that the FED should hike the rates, but not just yet....
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Super Contributor
And if you get it wrong it can kill you.
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Super Contributor
Guys, are you of the opinion that the price is always efficient and everything is always priced in correctly?
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Super Contributor
I don't think a rate hike can be priced in if no one knows if it's going to happen. At best it is partially priced in!
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Super Contributor
Russ, you may have a valid point.
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Not applicable
Ah - an efficient market hypothesis test! The answer is no, IMO. The very nature of a price / earnings ratio and the multiple the investor community is willing to pay debunks the theory. Certainly there is nothing new in the market - all news at any given point in time is priced in, if you work on the premise that news circulates instantaneously these days. But the multiples people are prepared to pay for that news, well that is a moving target
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