There has been a fundamental change here - her cost to build must have gone through the roof with the fall in the pound... and this in the face of falling high end property prices in London. She has practically no dividend to buffer her price and I suspect this will get worse. So even as an investor - it is time to take stock IMO. Personally, I wouldn't touch it unless (until?) it CRASHES!
I do not know what the value should be as it has never appealed due to high P/E and low dividend so I have not studied in depth, but who says R48 a bargain, when it was R23 at the beginning of 2012? Prior valuation irrelevant, what is it worth now?
NO! that is largely due to the Rand. The price is made in GBP on the LSE where it has fallen from 440 to 285. More weakness could see 2GBP. INTU trades at 30% discount to NAV with growing property values and 5% div. CAPC at 10% discount with bloated property values and no? div. Anything can happen though...!
Nope! That was INTU - and I am up 7% with dividend. The risk here is the Rand. The replacement value in her centre must be going through the roof in pounds. A patience game. 5% dividend which is due to her European expansion programme otherwise this dividend would be up around 8% from what I can tell. The current discussion is about CAPCO - an entirely different model!
In fact - here is what I wrote in that thread about CAPCO: "We had it out about these two before, you and I Padner (as Peter Sellers would say,)I didn't like Capco At R100 (or whatever it was back then) and I still don't! Of course Intu Is leveraged (and not that badly by UK standards) - she is a REIT! That is her model. CAPCO will struggle to raise capital in this environment and any need to raise capital or offload projects in order to remain sufficiently liquid. CAPCO is all in London and mostly undelivered. Intu Is in Spain, a bit the U.S. And Another bit in India. her model is exportable and inflation adjustable (winthin reason.) CAPCO is captive to the city of London, has no meaningful revenue stream to satisfy her rollout and must rely on unit sales to subsidize this. These units have collapsed in price.) CAPCO is a non-starter. She also has barely any dividend (none for the next while, I'll wager.) to defend her valuation. If she crashes to R20 or so - I'll take a couple of hundred thousand shares; until then- you can keep her!"
Well I have held it since R12.00( when it was cheap- but not all that cheap) asking the same questions all the way up and not bothering to ask them all the way down.. So the only questions worth asking are - what are the prospects going forward and what are the influencers - and in answering these I find nothing that makes me think this is going back up again to where it was., or beyond. Alas fair company go softly into the night...
If you had watched the breaking of the trend lines your first opportunity to get out would have been on 19/1/16 when the price was 8950. the next chance was 1/3/2016 when the price was 7291. Now we are on a trendline that goes back to about 2010. Why sell now? let's rather see if the trendline holds.I don't have much sympathy for you now, even if you fancy yourself as a combination of Warren Buffett and Dylan Thomas.